Iran’s role in regional escalation

Seven days into the fighting between Hamas and Israel, which broke out last Saturday, questions continue to surround Iran’s involvement in the attack.

According to information from L’Orient-Le Jour, the offensive dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood” was planned for months from the Lebanese capital, bringing together cadres from the “axis of resistance”: Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic Jihad and Iranian officers including Ismaïl Qaani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to The Washington Post, citing Western and Middle Eastern intelligence officials, Iran provided Hamas with military training, logistical assistance and tens of millions of dollars in arms purchases.

However, Tehran made contradictory statements.

On Sunday, just one day after the attack, Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi spoke by telephone with the leaders of Hamas’ and the Islamic Jihad’s armed wings.

Meanwhile, during a press conference at the Military Academy in Tehran, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said, “Supporters of the Zionist regime (Israel) and some members of the usurper regime have been spreading rumors over the past two or three days, including that Iran was behind the attack — they are wrong.”

Raissi did not hide his enthusiasm.

“You have truly made the Islamic Ummah [nation] happy with this innovative and victorious operation,” Raissi said according to IRNA, Iran’s official news agency.

Undermining Arab-Israeli normalization

Regardless of Iran’s extent of involvement in the attack, Hamas’ offensive aligns with several regional objectives that are important to Tehran.

Firstly, the military operation derailed the Israeli-Arab normalization process, particularly with Saudi Arabia, which could have set a precedent for other Arab and Muslim nations to follow. As things stand now, the project was effectively put on indefinite hold, if not entirely abandoned.

“One of the main effects, and perhaps an achieved objective [of the attack], was to make a change in regional dynamics,” said Emile Hokayem, a researcher specializing in Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Recent discussions, centered on normalization with Israel and its regional integration, now seem far-fetched, almost irrelevant.”

“Strategically, Iran succeeded in pushing the Palestinian issue back to the forefront,” he added. “Meanwhile, the countries that are trying to normalize with Israel, or have done so, feel caught off guard.”

The attack caught Israel completely off guard and undermined its image as the strongest military power in the region.

“With this attack, Israel proved not to be invincible after all,” said Hokayem. “It showed that with little patience, effort, time and a great deal of sacrifice, Arabs can regain control.”

“It may sound illusory, [but the offensive] inspired hope and determination within activist organizations across the region,” he added.

At home, Iran has consistently attempted to portray its regional successes as a validation of its strategy to its domestic audience.

“So, when Iran receives thanks and celebration in Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa, Gaza, or Baghdad, it serves as a useful tool for the Iranian regime,” Hokayem noted. “However, its primary purpose is to motivate the base rather than to persuade the skeptics.”

‘Unity of fronts’

This year, Iran managed to mitigate its conflicts with its Arab neighbors, especially in the Gulf.

Following the signing of a detente agreement with Saudi Arabia in March, Iran also agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations with Bahrain and subsequently with Egypt.

Meanwhile, despite Western and Israeli pressure and threats, Tehran continued to develop its uranium enrichment program and enhance its military capabilities.

"Each of these tactical measures can be seen as a clear Iranian response to Israeli actions,” said researcher Amir Hossein Vazirian on the Middle East Institute website.

In every confrontation with Israel, Tehran has put in place a strategy of deterrence based on establishing "unity of fronts" with various regional players in Gaza, southern Lebanon, the West Bank and the Golan Heights.

Hamas’ attack benefits Tehran by diverting the focus away from Iran’s nuclear facilities, which have been the target of Israeli attacks and sabotage for decades, and instead places the spotlight on Israel’s territory.

"Given the extensive scope of Iran’s nuclear program, the fear of an Israeli military attack against Iran has always loomed,” said Hamidreza Azizi, an associate researcher at the SWP Institute in Berlin.

"By supporting a Hamas offensive against Israel, the latter would be compelled to divert its attention toward internal security matters and likely undertake a comprehensive overhaul of its intelligence services, which will require time,” Azizi said.

The current sequence appears to endorse Tehran’s strategy, built on a network of alliances in the region and the proliferation of its ballistic missiles.

“In their assessment of the Iranian threat, Western countries focused primarily on the nuclear program, without necessarily understanding the strategic aspect of the network of influence that Iran has built across the region,” said Hokayem.

“These militias were seen as a pure product of the bankruptcy of Arab societies, not as a strategic tool for Teheran,” he added. “The lightning speed of the Hamas attack proved otherwise.”

“Iran is using [Gaza and Yemen] as laboratories to develop missiles for the resistance," wrote journalist Arron Merat in News Lines in 2021.

By training Palestinian and Yemeni technicians, Tehran is integrating "Iranian technology into tailor-made weapons systems adapted to a short-range war with Israel and a long-range war with Saudi Arabia,” Merat said. “The aim is to strike fear into Tel Aviv and Riyadh, and curb their ability to project their strength beyond their own borders.”

“Western powers, and not just them, failed to pay attention to the second crucial element of Iran’s strategy: Its substantial investment in missiles and drones, which inflicted significant damage on Saudi Arabia in September 2019,” Hokayem said.

“As a result, Iran currently holds a significantly stronger strategic position in the region compared to just a few years ago, despite the assassination of [IRGC commander] Qassem Soleimani,” he added.

Furthermore, Soleimani’s assassination in 2020 did not trigger a radical shift in Iranian strategy.

“It is an incremental, institutional, ideological and long-term evolution,” Hokayem said.

Calculated risk

Hamas’s attack provided momentum to Iran’s ‘unity of fronts’ strategy.

It appears as if Iran finally found a purpose for its regional influence it painstakingly built over decades: To demonstrate power in the face of Israel and show that Tel Aviv can be put under control.

Iran can now threaten to strike its adversary from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Gaza and even Yemen. This strategy, however, comes at a high cost.

Senior Israeli security officials pledged to retaliate against Iran’s leaders if Tehran bears any responsibility for the attack, which has already claimed the lives of more than 700 victims on Israeli soil.

“Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, thanking US President Joe Biden for his unequivocal support.

While Israeli heavy shelling continues in Gaza, the US provided Israel with ammunition and ordered the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, the world's largest warship, equipped with surface combat ships, two nuclear-powered submarines and a naval battle group.

However, Iran appears ready to accept this calculated risk.

“From a pragmatic standpoint, I don’t believe that Israel’s goal to eliminate Hamas or Hezbollah is feasible,” Hokayem said. “Today, these organizations are remarkably resilient, proficient and well-organized, with deep roots in their respective societies.”

But if Iran had to choose between its allies, it would probably sacrifice Hamas and not Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, having gained significant experience through a decade of conflict in Syria, possesses considerable human and material resources, effectively making it a formidable military force.

“Hezbollah is Iran’s most strategic asset,” Azizi said. “For the time being, it plays a deterrent role against Israel, to avoid retaliation outside the Gaza Strip.”

Israel, however, has already mobilized 300,000 soldiers, preparing for a major ground invasion of Gaza.

“Even though this may not be Hezbollah’s primary role, if Israel manages to completely destroy Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement, then Hezbollah could enter the fray,” Azizi said.

This scenario, if it were to unfold, has the potential to ignite the entire Middle East.

This article was translated from French by Sahar Ghossoub.