Hezbollah supporters hold up a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah during a rally in support of operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” in the southern suburbs of Beirut, October 8, 2023. (Credit: AFP)
On day two of the Hamas-Israel war, Hezbollah made clear the possibility of involving itself in the conflict. The party fired rockets at the occupied Shebaa farms Sunday morning and Israel responded. In the evening, Israel ordered the evacuation of its settlements along the Lebanese border.
“Everything we have is with you,” said Sheikh Hashem Safieddine, chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, on Sunday afternoon to Palestinian fighters. His message was clear: Hezbollah is ready to support Hamas.
Firas Maksad, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that Hezbollah has no choice but to wage war on Israel if it launches a major offensive to dismantle Hamas, regardless of the risk of dragging Lebanon into a situation.
Maksad answered our questions on the matter.
Is there a risk that Hezbollah will take part in the war that Hamas is waging against the Israeli army?
It’s difficult to predict what might happen, but if the Hebrew state launches a ground invasion of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas, as it has promised to do, I think it will be difficult for Hezbollah and Iran to stand idly by. The Iranian axis has the advantage of having surprised Israel. The Hebrew state, for its part, is still trying to understand what has happened and to regain its equilibrium in order to take action.
The rockets that Hezbollah launched this morning are a warning designed to dissuade the Hebrew State from carrying out a ground invasion of Gaza. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah believe that Israel has already suffered a heavy blow and that Hamas already has enough hostages to make Tel Aviv fear more deaths. On the other hand, Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a lot of pressure to retaliate and take his revenge on Hamas.
If Hezbollah were to join the fight, what would the consequences be for Lebanon?
The consequences could be devastating. The situation could be worse than the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. Today, Tel Aviv enjoys a high degree of sympathy and support in Europe and Washington. If Israel launches a major operation in Gaza and this conflict turns into a multi-front war in which Hezbollah is involved, the Hebrew state will certainly find all the support it needs.
If Lebanon is destroyed again, this time no one will help us rebuild it. The Gulf States will not give money to Lebanon, as they did in 2006. I really fear the consequences that such a war could have, but I think that Hezbollah is going to have to make a difficult choice.
Is Hezbollah ready to put the country at risk? Will Lebanese politicians try to dissuade it?
I think the Shiite party prefers not to get involved in the war between Hamas and Israel. It is trying to dissuade the Hebrew state from resorting to a multi-front conflict. Nevertheless, this is an unprecedented war, at a time when Israel is led by a very right-wing government. Iran and Hezbollah will not be able to stand idly by while Hamas is being destroyed. It will certainly be a difficult decision for Israel, which will have to invade Gaza to dismantle Hamas. This is why the Hebrew State ordered the evacuation of the settlements near Lebanon. It fears that Hezbollah will take part in the war.
Unfortunately, in Lebanon, all the political players are spectators and it is the Shiite party that is calling the shots. It is the one taking the strategic decisions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is trying to put pressure on Hezbollah to dissuade it, because everyone is able to see what the consequences of such an escalation could be.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient Le-Jour. Translation by Joelle EL Khoury.