Syrian refugees on the Lebanese-Syrian border. (Credit: AFP archive photo)
The number of Syrians in Lebanon: 2,113,761, according to a table shared by MP Farid Boustany on X (formerly Twitter), citing a document attributed to the “Statistics Lebanon” agency.
According to the table, the Baalbek-Hermel region hosts the most Syrians at 315,583 (300,842 for Baalbeck and 14,741 for Hermel). Meanwhile, the Chouf is home to 185,170, according to the same table.
In his message, Boustany takes issue with the fact that in the Chouf, “the number of refugees is three times higher than that of Lebanese residents, representing a time bomb that could soon explode.”
However, Rabih Haber, CEO of Statistics Lebanon has come out saying he cannot corroborate the numbers Boustany cited.
How accurate are these figures?
Haber highlighted certain approximations in the table figures circulating on social media.
In the study conducted by his agency, the count of Syrians registered in the Chouf stands at 158,170, not 185,170; in Zgharta it’s 41,410, not 61,410; and in Rashaya, the correct figure is 24,212, not 111,577. The latter number reflects the count of Syrians registered in Zahle (62,212 as per the circulated table). Finally, the total number of Syrians registered by Statistics Lebanon is 2,048,713, not 2,113,761.
However, Haber pointed out that Statistics Lebanon’s study covers all Syrians currently residing in Lebanon, including those legally working in the country, the registered refugees, as well as Syrian individuals residing illegally. By comparison, the the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) on its website states that there are 795,322 registered refugees in the country.
Haber, nonetheless, also noted that this his organization’s figures do not account for the recent surge of Syrian migrants crossing the Lebanon-Syria border in recent weeks. The data Statistics Lebanon reports is from May. He adds that his agency is currently in the process of preparing a new census and believes that “the number of Syrians has undoubtedly increased since then.”
Asked about Statistics Lebanon methodology for counting Syrians by area, Haber said this is carried out “by extrapolation, counting the number of residents by village, and extracting the number of Lebanese citizens.”
However, researcher and statistician Mohammad Chamseddine remains skeptical.
“It seems impossible to me to count the Syrians in every district and every governorate, which would require an immense budget and years of work,” Chamseddine told L’Orient-Le Jour.
He personally adheres to an estimate of 1.6 million, which is based on official statistics from 2014 to 2017, as well as projections related to the repatriation and resettlement of Syrians in third countries after that period.
Baalbek-Hermel
In the Statistics Lebanon document circulating on social networks, the Baalbek-Hermel governorate stands out, with a reported population of over 315,000 Syrians currently residing there. However, on its website, in an August report, UNHCR states that there are 113,958 refugees in this region.
Baalbek-Hermel Governor Bachir Khodr confirms the figure put forward by Statistics Lebanon, adding that it has been rising steadily since the new flow of refugees into Lebanon began this summer.
“To give you an idea, the army arrested 6,000 Syrians residing illegally in Baalbek-Hermel in August and 1,600 in September (the census is not definitive for this month),” he said.
Arguing that “the region can no longer support this constant flow of migrants,” he stressed that it is the justice system that decides whether or not they are deported.
“These illegal immigrants are arrested by the army, which hands them over to the courts, given the saturation of the General Security detention centers,” he explained.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.
