Gebran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement. (Credit: AFP archive photo)
Any serious presidential candidate must court the international community and Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), understands this.
He has been in Paris since Wednesday following last week's visit to Doha. The FPM strong man, who considers himself a “logical candidate” for the presidency, seems to be working to advance his pawns in the race to the Baabda Palace.
Even though he has not officially declared himself a candidate, the timing of his visit to the French capital is noteworthy.
French President Emmanuel Macron had a phone conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on Nov. 12, reportedly about the Lebanese presidential election.
The two leaders are expected to discuss the Lebanese issue again on the sidelines of the G20 summit, currently being held in Indonesia.
At the same time, Hezbollah seems to be slowly coming out of its passivity in the presidential battle in favor of Zgharta's Sleiman Frangieh, much to the dismay of the Aounists.
Personal initiative
“Gebran Bassil's visit to Paris is a personal initiative,” a French diplomatic source told L'Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity. “He has not received an official invitation from France.”
L'Orient-Le Jour learned Bassil will nevertheless meet with French political leaders including Bernard Émié, Director General of External Security and former ambassador to Lebanon; Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic adviser to Macron and also a former ambassador to Lebanon; and Patrick Durel, Macron's adviser for North Africa and the Middle East.
Is Bassil trying to promote himself as a presidential candidate? The FPM and those close to the party leader preferred not to comment.
“The party has taken the decision not to discuss this issue with the press,” FPM Vice President May Khoreiche, told L’Orient-Le Jour.
“Gebran Bassil is trying to show international powers, his local allies, but also his rivals, that he is active in pushing his candidacy for the presidential election,” an FPM official told L'Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.
Bassil is taking advantage of improved relations with Paris, especially following his key role in the negotiations on the maritime border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel, which paved the way for the French giant TotalEnergies to begin exploiting Lebanese gas in the Mediterranean.
This trip to Paris comes at a time when Bassil's candidacy is precarious, especially because, in the eyes of many observers, it is Frangieh who remains the undeclared favorite of Hezbollah—the FPM's only ally.
This is particularly true given that the list of criteria, presented by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in his recent speech, seems to apply to the Marada Movement leader, Hezbollah's most consistent Christian ally.
“We want a president who would not betray the Resistance or plot against it,” Nasrallah said, a statement that somehow mirrored Frangieh's remarks from Bkerki — the seat of the Maronite Church — a few weeks ago.
“I don't plot against my allies, but I don't take orders from them either,” the Zgharta leader said.
Bassil 'has his say'
Despite the fact that Hezbollah appears to be inclined toward Frangieh and that, according to L'Orient-Le Jour's information, France has shown signs that it is in favor of this choice, Bassil does not seem ready to give up.
“France wants to see the election of a unifying president in Lebanon. However, Gebran Bassil is a very divisive figure. If a compromise is reached around his candidacy, we will not oppose it,” a French diplomat told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.
This possibility seems far-fetched at the moment. The FPM leader is increasingly isolated on the local scene, not to mention the American sanctions against him.
“Gebran Bassil may not have the best chance of becoming president, but he holds the keys to Baabda,” the aforementioned Aounist official said.
“His position is central today since he stands in the middle between the two camps [March 8 and March 14] but does not agree with either of them,” the official added.
“Neither of the two camps will be able to elect their candidate without the support of the Christian bloc represented by the FPM.”
Bassil's trip is a reminder that, even if he will not be the next president, Michel Aoun's successor will not be appointed without his approval.
“France is aware of the fact that Gebran Bassil chairs a major Christian parliamentary bloc and that he has a say in the election,” said the FPM official.
The French say they are ready to hear what Bassil has to say.
“France has never broken off communication with anyone,” the French diplomatic source commented.
“From Hezbollah to the Lebanese Forces, through the protest movement figures, we consult with everyone.”
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.
