The French envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, during a meeting with the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, in Haret Hreik, May 29, 2024. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)
President Emmanuel Macron’s envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, completed his two-day visit to Lebanon on Wednesday. He met with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and other political leaders, including Hezbollah officials and Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai.
The objective of the visit was to break the deadlock in the presidential dossier, more than a year and a half after Michel Aoun’s term of office ended. The decision to visit came after discussions in France on Macron’s possible visit to Beirut to stir up inertia.
“However, the French presidency was advised, notably by the Lebanese, not to take this initiative, as it would not lead to any results, a bit like in 2020,” said a Western diplomatic source, referring to Macron’s visit following the explosion at the port of Beirut and his French initiative that achieved no results.
The source added, “Moreover, Berri advised Le Drian himself not to visit, as there is nothing new.”
Annoyed by this passivity, Le Drian made it abundantly clear during Wednesday’s meeting with Berri, according to the same source: “If a president is not elected very soon, it will be the end of political Lebanon. Only geographic Lebanon will remain,” the source quoted Le Drian as saying.
The Lebanese attitude did not prevent Le Drian from discussing two key issues with various officials: The presidential election and stability on the southern border, and the continuation of negotiations of the French document to achieve de-escalation.
These issues were discussed particularly with the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohamed Raad. “Regarding the presidential election, Le Drian proposed that Hezbollah abandon the idea of dialogue and of holding open and consecutive electoral sessions to elect a head of state. Raad replied that it was impossible to hold a conclave without first knowing the candidates, the profile of the president who would be elected and on what basis [he would be elected], all the more so in a context of consensual democracy,” said a source familiar with the talks.
It is also out of the question for Hezbollah to hold simple “consultations between the blocs,” as Le Drian suggested. “There should be a dialogue without preconditions,” Hezbollah’s representatives said.
Regarding the situation at the border, the Iran-aligned party reiterated the same position that hostilities in southern Lebanon could only be halted once a cease-fire had been declared in Gaza. However, Hezbollah expressed willingness to continue the discussions on the French document.
‘Only geographical Lebanon will remain’
It’s almost the same story in Ain al-Tineh. Admittedly, as a good negotiator, Berri has agreed to use the word “consultations” instead of “dialogue,” but the process remains the same for the parliament speaker.
The latter insists on the importance of “consultations” between the parliamentary blocs before heading for consecutive electoral sessions, with the names of the selected candidates in the bag, and the best one winning.
Hezbollah and Amal also rejected the idea that centrist MPs of the National Moderation bloc call for parliamentary consultations rather than Berri, adding that they would only partake in dialogue convened and chaired by the parliament speaker.
Against this backdrop, there are various opinions about the outcomes of Le Drian’s visit. While some believe it produced no results, others pointed out that its main objective was to draft a report for the French presidency ahead of the Joe Biden-Emmanuel Macron summit on June 6.
According to a third reading, the visit was an attempt to save the five-nation committee involved in the Lebanese dossier (France, the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt).
“This visit could be the last chance for the Quintet, which hasn’t achieved a single result in a year and a half,” said an official close to the Shiite tandem.
It is an umpteenth failure that led to the end of the committee in its current form and the adoption of a new approach by each country individually or through bilateral coordination between them.
If this happens, Paris insists on maintaining an essential presence and role in Lebanon, with or without the Quintet. All the more so as, according to several concordant sources, the presidential crisis is set to last, with no prospect of a solution on the horizon before the situation in Gaza and southern Lebanon has been resolved.
Sleiman Frangieh’s return?
Le Drian’s visit came a few days after a phone call between Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), in which the Lebanese dossier was also discussed.
Western diplomatic sources said that Macron tried to convince MBS to get a little more involved in the Lebanese dossier.
The same sources added that Macron asked MBS if it’s possible to change or adjust the Saudi approach, particularly concerning the kingdom’s strict stance on the presidential issue, especially the candidacy of Sleiman Frangieh (endorsed by Amal and Hezbollah).
A Western diplomatic source said, “Paris believes that there could be a convergence between the US on the one hand, and Iran and the Shiite tandem on the other, concerning southern Lebanon and the presidential election. This could enable Hezbollah to elect its candidate, and France does not want to find itself sidelined if this dynamic bears fruit, even if it means reverting to its previous position that is in favor of Frangieh rather than calling for a third-way candidacy, which is an option that Hezbollah’s camp rejects.”
In this vein, concordant diplomatic sources said that during their negotiations with the Americans, the Iranians stressed their support for the choices of the Shiite tandem in Lebanon, including for the candidacy of Frangieh.
Other information suggests that during the meeting between MBS and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on the sidelines of the Manama summit in early May, the latter tried to address the Lebanese issue by expressing a position favorable to Frangieh. No information has been leaked on MBS’s response.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El Khoury.
