Druze leader Walid Joumblatt talking to Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, May 21, 2024. (Credit: Progressive Socialist Party)
“It’s going to be a long war. And it will probably be our turn soon,” Walid Joumblatt stated in an interview with Qatar’s al-Sharq newspaper a few days ago while visiting Doha. This statement is important.
The Druze leader is reputed to pick up on the signals of regional developments. So what is behind the warning of the former head of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)? Does it summarize his recent talks in Qatar?
These questions arose firstly because Doha is a mediator in the cease-fire talks between Hamas and Israel, at a time when Hezbollah is actively supporting the Palestinian movement from southern Lebanon.
Secondly, he has always feared the possibility of an all-out war in Lebanon, while stating that he is ready to support Hezbollah in such a case.
“That’s my opinion, on which I insist. The war could spread to Lebanon,” Joumblatt told L’Orient-Le Jour.
He did not reveal the content of his Doha talks, saying only that he raised the issue of Syrian migrants and refugees (without advocating an official Lebanese dialogue with Damascus on this issue) and the need to support the Lebanese Army, which is called to carry out a difficult mission in the south once the war is over.
Ghazi Aridi, a former minister for the PSP, did beat around the bush. “During his stays in Qatar and France [where he met President Emmanuel Macron], Joumblatt grasped that there is a serious risk of all-out war,” he told L’Orient-Le Jour.
He pointed out that the Druze leader has always called to avoid this possibility. Since the start of the war, he has insisted on not dragging the country into a devastating war,” said Aridi. “But no one can predict what Israel is planning,” he added.
Joumblatt’s remarks supporting the Iran-aligned party are part of this context. “Hezbollah defends Lebanon,” said the former PSP leader in his interview with the Qatari daily, taking his support for the Shiite party a step further.
“These remarks should come as no surprise,” said Aridi. He recalled that Joumblatt has always shown a willingness to support Hezbollah in the event of an all-out war.
No suggestions on presidential candidates
Joumblatt’s remarks on Hezbollah came amid a rapprochement between the two sides. This dynamic could be reflected in the presidential election, which has been in an impasse since October 2022 due to a lack of consensus (which the Constitution does not require) between the various political actors.
A few months ago, Joumblatt stated he had “no problem” with Marada Movement Leader Sleiman Frangieh (backed by Amal and Hezbollah) being elected as president.
Will the PSP give up on the candidate supported by the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Jihad Azour?
“We’re not going to elect Sleiman Frangieh,” said an MP for the PSP on condition of anonymity. He repeated what Taymour Joumblatt, the current leader of the PSP, said to L’Orient-le Jour in July 2023 that they cannot vote for Frangieh.
Against this backdrop of deadlock, Qatar — which will host FPM leader Gebran Bassil and a delegation from the Lebanese Forces (LF) in the next few days — is working alongside the other members of the five nations committee involved in the Lebanese dossier (the US, France, Saudi Arabia and Egypt) to achieve a breakthrough in the presidential dossier through the election of a third-party figure.
However, Walid Joumblatt said, “We didn’t mention names for the presidential elections [during my visit].” “I’m not endorsing any name. Neither I nor my son [are],” he added.
This was Joumblatt’s way to end the speculation that he and his son have differing views on the presidential election. According to these reports, Taymour is adamant in his refusal to support Frangieh, even if he manages to convince one of the two majority Christian parties (the LF and FPM).
Joumblatt clings to the traditional formula, i.e. a settlement, to break the deadlock. “The presidential election depends on two factors: The willingness of the major parties in this country to reach an agreement, and the quintet that should help us move forward,” he said.
Joumblatt was due to meet France’s special envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, on Tuesday evening as part of his fifth visit to Beirut since May 2023.
Joumblatt referred to the Christian opposition, which rejects Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri’s call for dialogue on the presidential election.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour and translated by Joelle El Khoury.