French envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian and French ambassador to Beirut Hervé Magro arriving at Aïn el-Tiné, Sept. 15, 2023. (Credit: Mohammad Yassin/ L'Orient-Le Jour)
“In the coming months, we risk changing the world. So Lebanon needs a president, while it is still a priority for the international community.” With this observation, a Beirut-based Western diplomat summed up for L'Orient-Le Jour the objective of the visit by France's special envoy for Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, expected in the Lebanese capital on Tuesday and Wednesday for a new attempt to break the deadlock in the presidential election. After the rise in tone of the Quintet involved in the Lebanese dossier (USA, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar), the French envoy is returning to urge the Lebanese politicians “to fulfill their duty,” without proposing a new initiative with the aim being to “inaugurate a new phase in the process,” focusing mainly on the profile and program of the future head of state.
Six months after his last trip to Beirut, Le Drian is scheduled to hold talks with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, the country's two de facto leaders in a leadership vacuum. Meetings are also scheduled with political leaders, including Marada leader and Hezbollah-backed presidential candidate Sleiman Frangieh, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, as well as the opposition Renewal bloc and the National Moderation bloc (ex-Hariri MPs). Also on the agenda is a meeting in Bkirki with the Maronite Patriarch, Bechara Raï.
However, the French diplomat is unlikely to meet with the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, as their last meeting was relatively tense. Diplomatic circles, however, put things into perspective. “Bassil is traveling, and his trip was planned well before Le Drian's return to Lebanon,” stressed the aforementioned source. Nor is any meeting planned with army head Joseph Aoun, who is nevertheless seen as a serious candidate for the presidency. “This time, Le Drian's mission does not concern the situation in South Lebanon, but the presidential election,” explained the diplomatic source.
Le Drian returns to Beirut a week and a half after the statement issued by the Group of Five Nations' Beirut ambassadors in which they called for “consultations, limited in scope and duration, between the political blocs.” “The choice of the term ‘consultations’ is intended to give the process an official and constitutional stamp,” the Western diplomat explained, pointing out that during their talks with the political leaders last April, the five ambassadors had succeeded in extracting from them a commitment to try to reach agreement and, above all, not to torpedo the quorum of any possible electoral session. “Le Drian is banking on this commitment to try to move things forward,” said the source. It indicates that the French emissary will then have to draw up a report, which he will hand over to President Emmanuel Macron. The latter will discuss the Lebanese dossier with his American counterpart, Joe Biden, at their summit scheduled for June 6 in France.
“This meeting and Le Drian's planned visit to Beirut are a last chance for Lebanon,” warned a French diplomat.
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.
