A man moving under a pedestrian point in Dora, at the northern entrance to Beirut, January 11, 2022. Photo: P.H.B.
The World Bank released a revealing report on Thursday indicating that Lebanon's poverty rate had surged to 44 percent of the overall population in 2022 (including the estimated 1.5 million Syrian migrants and refugees), and 33 percent for the Lebanese population, meaning one in three Lebanese citizens is now living in poverty. The figure represents a threefold increase compared to ten years ago.
Coincidentally, the report was published within hours of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation's visit to Beirut. The IMF highlighted that "the absence of necessary economic reforms" has driven unemployment and poverty to "exceptionally high" levels amid a five-year socio-economic crisis.
The World Bank's data focuses on monetary poverty, which is calculated differently from multidimensional poverty, the indicator used by various international organizations including the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
“For the first time in 10 years, the World Bank, in collaboration with the World Food Programme and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, has managed to collect household consumption and expenditure data across five Lebanese governorates,” Tala Ismail, a World Bank economist, told L'Orient Today. These governorates include Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon and most of Mount Lebanon.
The new poverty rate was determined based on a study covering around 60 percent of the population across most of Lebanon, except for certain southern and eastern regions bordering Israel and Syria. "This household survey allowed for updated poverty figures for 2022 and 2023 using an unofficial new poverty threshold," Ismail said.
Until now, the World Bank has relied on a rough estimate of monetary poverty rates based on data dating back to 2011 and 2012, citing restricted access to reliable updated statistics. Based on the 2011-2012 data, the World Bank had projected that over 50 percent of the population was living below the poverty line.
The new poverty threshold stands at 53.4 million Lebanese pounds per person per year, equivalent to $1,100 at the Jan. 2023 exchange rate of LL48,545 per dollar. This amount translates to approximately $91.6 per month, or about $3 per day, according to calculations based on information from the World Bank.
During a press conference held for the report's official release, Jean-Christophe Carret, the World Bank director for the Middle East, emphasized "the urgent need to expand and deepen social assistance programs."
Lebanon's economic collapse since the summer of 2019 is largely attributed to poor governance, corruption, neglect, and the inertia of the nation's ruling class and banking sector.
Unevenly distributed poverty
The following data are among the report's other findings:
• Poverty is unevenly distributed across Lebanon. For example, 12 percent of Beirut’s residents live below the poverty threshold, compared to 70 percent in Akkar.
• Syrian households are particularly disadvantaged, according to all comparable measures and indicators of well-being. Nearly nine out of ten Syrians living below the poverty line in 2022. Around 45 percent of poor Syrian families have below-acceptable food consumption levels. Syrians of working age have received less education, and those who do work are employed in low-paid and precarious, informal jobs, contributing to their households' state of poverty and food insecurity.
• Overall prices have multiplied to nearly 15 times higher than they were a decade ago, eroding the purchasing power of incomes denominated in Lebanese pounds. Data shows that Lebanese households in the surveyed governorates consumed only a third of the meat and seafood they did ten years ago, turning instead to more affordable bread and cereals, whose consumption has risen by more than 20 percent.
• Income inequality is also worsening among Lebanese. Lebanon ranked 129th out of 141 countries in income inequality in 2014, with the richest 10 percent of adults receiving 55 percent of the national income. The 2022 survey data indicates that income inequality measured by the Gini index increased from 0.4 in 2012 to 0.6 in the surveyed governorates.
• The World Bank estimated that the cash economy represents 46 percent of Lebanon’s GDP, as Lebanese citizens have become increasingly distrustful of banks since the crisis began in 2019.