Refugee children in one of the many camps in the Bekaa. (Credit: Mohammad Yassine/L'Orient-Le Jour)
For several weeks now, the Lebanese government has been striving to convey that it is poised to confront the issue of Syrian migrants head-on.
The urgency intensified after the murder of Pascal Sleiman, a member of the Lebanese Forces (LF) — allegedly by a Syrian gang — and the subsequent acts of aggression against innocent Syrians.
These incidents exposed the Lebanese state’s laxity in addressing this sensitive and volatile issue.
However, despite caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s recent declaration of intent to repatriate “most of the refugees,” questions linger about the government’s genuine commitment and capacity to follow through.
The pertinent question remains: Why does Lebanon grapple piecemeal with this issue, marked by sporadic actions and disjointed decisions?
The primary obstacle, and a significant one at that, lies in Syria’s objection to the repatriation of migrants.
Since the outset, Damascus has expressed willingness to welcome back its citizens but insists on having an official counterpart in negotiations.
Essentially, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime aims to normalize its relations with Lebanon, a goal shared by Hezbollah but vehemently opposed by many other political parties within Lebanon.
“Assad might agree to the return of only a select few refugees, subject to screening, but not the entire population,” explained Ziad Majed, director of the Middle East Studies program at the American University in Paris. “He conditions this on normalization with his regime and receiving economic assistance from the international community to purportedly rebuild certain war-torn areas.”
In Lebanon, the gears have been set in motion once again.
Following a ministerial gathering on April 15, during which the government reaffirmed its commitment to address the issue, a subsequent meeting was convened on Tuesday to follow up on these discussions with representatives from the justice and security sectors.
The agenda included plans for repatriating the Syrian prison population, which constitutes nearly “30 percent of inmates,” as per a knowledgeable government source.
According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour from a ministerial insider, Syria has tentatively agreed to accept the prisoners, who will be repatriated once all necessary procedures are finalized, “except for those individuals who are entangled in political issues with the regime.”
“Undoubtedly, resolving the issue necessitates communication with the Syrian state,” said caretaker Justice Minister Henry Khoury following the meeting. He disclosed that Elias Baissari, the acting director of General Security, would oversee the matter.
On Wednesday, discussions buzzed on the topic at both parliamentary and ministerial levels.
According to the authorities, around 1.5 million Syrians reside in Lebanon, making it the country with the highest refugee population per capita globally.
Approximately 800,000 are registered with the United Nations, although the exact figure remains uncertain.
In 2015, the Lebanese government halted UNHCR registration efforts, complicating efforts to track the migrant population.
Last year, authorities requested UNHCR data under an agreement signed in August 2023. The absence of this data hinders classification efforts, necessary to identify migrants’ legal status and those who have re-entered Lebanon unlawfully.
The question also arises regarding individuals who have infiltrated Lebanon since 2015 and evaded detection.
On Wednesday, however, caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi announced that “the Directorate General of General Security has received the data needed to determine the number of Syrian refugees.”
Plans continue to sit on the shelf
Plans in this direction abound but the political will to implement them is lacking. Thus far, the migrant issue has been a battleground for various political parties, leading to polarization and hindering concerted efforts toward a solution.
“Despite efforts dating back to 2014, including revisions in 2016 and 2020, to establish a comprehensive public policy and scientific methodology for categorizing Syrian refugees, progress has been negligible,” said Ziad al-Sayegh, an expert in public policy and migration issues.
With unanimity emerging on the imperative of refugee repatriation, Sayegh believes it’s not too late to rectify the situation.
“The census could be conducted with support from municipalities, civil society and economic and religious entities,” he said. “We simply need to enforce circulars issued three years ago by the Interior Ministry, mandating municipalities to categorize refugees within their jurisdictions.”
While some municipalities initiated this task, progress has been slow.
Diplomatic pressure?
The recent engagement demonstrated by the Lebanese government has left some skeptical experts unconvinced. They believe that the authorities are engaging in a competitive display in anticipation of the Brussels summit on refugees, slated for May 27, tacitly aiming to secure more funds in exchange for hosting migrants in Lebanon.
“I am deeply concerned that as the Brussels conference approaches, the government will intensify efforts to magnify the issue to solicit increased funding,” Sayegh said. “This scenario repeats itself every year.”
Mikati is striving to persuade the European Union of the existence of “safe zones” in Syria capable of accommodating migrants. The idea is for these individuals to access Western aid on Syrian soil rather than Lebanese territory.
“EU assistance to Syrian refugees should be channeled toward facilitating their return,” Mikati emphasized during his meeting with Olivér Várhelyi, European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement, who visited Beirut on Monday.
Várhelyi underscored the importance of respecting conditions for voluntary, safe and dignified return, in cooperation with Lebanese authorities, while reaffirming the European Council’s readiness to continue supporting Syrian refugees in Lebanon.
The EU’s stance remains unchanged, prioritizing voluntary return as the guiding principle, while commitments to provide aid to support migrants within Lebanon persist.
Since the onset of the crisis, the UNHCR has maintained a staunch stance against any involuntary repatriation of migrants, particularly to safeguard political refugees who face the risk of persecution in their homeland.
This stance sparked a contentious debate between Lebanese diplomatic channels, which insisted on receiving nominal lists of Syrian refugees, and the UN, which prioritized the protection of individuals’ private data.
In a report released in September 2021, Amnesty International chronicled a catalog of appalling violations perpetrated by Syrian intelligence agents against 66 Syrian returnees, including 13 children. Most of these children had returned from Lebanon, with two being deported.
“Europe and the West may face criticism for their policies in the region,” Majed said. “However, I don’t believe they are mistaken in asserting that conditions in Syria are still not conducive for refugees to return.”
“The solution entails diplomatic scrutiny of this matter with the UN and key decision-making countries to rationalize the approach at the Lebanese level and mitigate populism,” he added. “We’re dealing with a potential time bomb.”
No to resettlement
Lebanon is gearing up to engage with European decision-makers in Brussels. Ministerial sources indicate that the government is banking on a robust intervention from Cyprus, which holds significant concerns regarding the influx of Syrian migrants arriving in Nicosia from Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has broken its silence to caution against the repercussions of an increasing Syrian presence, notably through the outspoken mufti, Ahmad Kabalan, who squarely blames the West for impeding the return of Syrians.
Kabalan, known for vocalizing Hezbollah’s unspoken sentiments, has emphasized on multiple occasions that the Shiite community will not entertain any form of integration or resettlement of migrants.
The apprehension of resettlement is not exclusive to Shiites; Christians share similar concerns.
Furthermore, the Shiite cleric has even advocated for facilitating the clandestine departure of Syrians by sea to European nations, which are increasingly wary of migrant inflows, as a means of exerting pressure on them.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.