Iranian protesters wave their flag and the Palestinian flag during a gathering at Palestine Square in Tehran, following the drone and missile attack conducted by the Islamic Republic against Israel on Saturday evening. (Credit: Atta Kenare/AFP)
BEIRUT — Iran's response had barely begun, shortly before 11 p.m. Saturday, when the question was already on everyone's lips: What will Israel's response be? The region has been holding its breath since Tehran launched hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel. Sworn enemies, this was the first time Iran attacked Israeli territory directly. An army base in southern Israel sustained minor damage and a 7-year-old Bedouin girl is in critical condition after being struck by missile fragments.
The attack was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two commanders.
Israel adopted a strong tone. “The fact that Iran is attacking Israel for the first time from its territory demands a decisive response, which will not take long to come,” said Israeli officials, quoted by the Israeli daily ynetnews.
Early in the morning, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the country had “repelled the first major wave of Iranian drone and missile fire, but the confrontation is not yet over.”
Divert attention
Should these threats suggest that a disproportionate counterattack against Tehran and its regional proxies is planned? On the one hand, the Israeli leadership has made significant gains during the course of events, which could be jeopardized should it escalate the situation further. After the political and security failure of Oct. 7, those in power can boast of having succeeded in protecting their citizens from an unprecedented attack from Tehran.
While the Iranian response seems to have been strategically calculated to avoid a real regional conflagration, Israel and its allies had time to intercept 99 percent of the projectiles – also coming from Iraq, Syria and Yemen – before they hit their targets, according to Israeli officials. The country already opened its airspace around 5:30 a.m. after closing it overnight. And at the start of the morning, the prime minister himself took the opportunity to adopt a winning posture. “We intercepted, we pushed back, together we will win,” Benjamin Netanyahu said in a message to his nation sent early this morning on X.
These developments also offer the Israeli government the opportunity to divert attention from the massacres that have been taking place for six months in Gaza, from the impasse in indirect negotiations with Hamas to free the hostages in the hands of the Islamist group and the pressure exerted by part of the population to obtain the resignation of the prime minister. At a time when the country has fallen into diplomatic isolation due to its inability to impose a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave, its Western allies have increased their condemnations against Tehran. The United States in particular, which had moved up a gear in its calls for order addressed to Tel Aviv, declared at dawn through the secretary of defense that it "would not hesitate to act to protect American forces [in the region] and to support Israel in defending itself.”
At the same time, Israel can seize events to materialize any opportunity for Arab normalization in the future, while the war in Gaza has slowed down the process of diplomatic rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and embarrassed the signatory countries of the Abraham Accords.
While Riyadh called on all parties to exercise the "highest level" of restraint, Jordan shot down dozens of Iranian drones crossing the north and center of the kingdom towards Israel, drawing threats of Tehran.
“We may not know for some time the full details of Arab cooperation this [Saturday] evening in intercepting the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel, but it was undoubtedly important, including the use of Jordanian airspace," emphasized on X Anshel Pfeffer, journalist for the Israeli daily Haaretz. "This certainly helped save many Israeli lives," he said.
American support
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, even if Tel Aviv decided to risk its newly won gains by launching a broad attack against the Islamic Republic or its regional proxies, doing so without US support may prove extremely costly. However, Joe Biden warned Benjamin Netanyahu that his government would oppose any response from Israel against Iran, according to a senior White House official cited by the American site Axios. A sign that Israel would have listened to its main supporter wanting to resort to diplomatic channels, Israel requested the urgent holding of a meeting of the UN Security Council – an organ that it nevertheless discredits – which must be held this Sunday.
But to what extent will Washington be able to restrict the actions of its Israeli ally, in the event that it bets on a regional escalation? While the triple incursion of Oct. 7 and its aftermath have caused collective trauma within Israeli society, the government can hardly fail to respond. It could thus respond disproportionately in order to dissuade Tehran and its regional proxies from carrying out this type of attack on its territory again. For Israel, not doing so would contribute to the image of victory that Iran would give itself.
Without a significant response from its enemy, the Islamic Republic can boast of having saved face after the strike against its consular annex in Damascus. Especially since despite the words of the American president, it will be very difficult for the United States to stay on the sidelines in the event of war.
'Overwhelming attack'
From there, several scenarios emerge. Israel could carry out a direct attack against Iran by targeting military targets or key infrastructure. An operation that could be accompanied by an intensification of strikes against Tehran's allies in the region. This hypothesis would, however, mean that Tel Aviv would take on the risk of a regional escalation, without having completely ensured the support of its American ally. Israel could make another bet and respond strongly in other regional theaters, notably in Lebanon.
Since Saturday evening, some observers have suggested that Israel could act on Lebanese soil as a prelude to an agitated land offensive in the south of the country for several weeks.
However, Hezbollah has been careful not to leave the framework of confrontation which has pitted it against Tel Aviv since Oct. 8, a sign of its desire to remain in the background. A final scenario would consist of a symbolic attack on the territory of the Islamic Republic while carrying out larger strikes on neighboring theaters.
For the moment, there is nothing to know to what extent the response – if it takes place – will be measured. But one thing is certain: The pressure from Netanyahu's ultranationalist and far-right coalition partners to toughen up his conduct is only beginning.
“Impressive defense so far – now we need an overwhelming attack,” Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Sunday morning on X. “Israel really did a remarkable job defending its skies last night, but not responding to this unprecedented direct Iranian attack is an idea of October 6,” Israeli journalist and author Yaakov Katz commented on X. "Israel cannot let Iran think that an attack of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles is tolerated simply because almost all of them have been shot down. If we do, the next attack will only be a matter of time."
This article originally appeared in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.
