Is Israel eyeing Palestinian camps in Lebanon?

Amid the Gaza war, Israel accused Mounir Maqdah, a Fatah officer usually based in the Ain al-Hilweh camp in southern Lebanon, of smuggling weapons made in Iran into the “Judea and Samaria district” (occupied West Bank). This accusation was on the Arabic section of the Israeli army’s website, with Israel seemingly keeping a close watch on both Hamas and Fatah.

The Israeli army website reported that numerous modern weapons were confiscated during the operation conducted by Israeli General Security to thwart Maqdah’s actions. Additionally, the army suspects that the Fatah leader recruited West Bank residents to engage in terrorist operations against Israel.

These accusations prompted numerous questions about the timing of Maqdah’s resurgence into the spotlight.

Is Israel gearing up to target Palestinian camps in Lebanon under the pretext that Maqdah resides in one of the largest camps?

This official’s role within Fatah remains ambiguous to many observers. Even during last summer’s clashes between rival Palestinian groups, Maqdah — who once led the joint Palestinian forces responsible for camp security — remained in the shadows.

“Mounir Maqdah serves as the deputy head of this force,” Jamal Kouchmar, a member of the Fatah board in Lebanon, told L’Orient-Le Jour.

Despite holding a senior position, “he has managed to retain some flexibility due to his military strength and influence on the ground,” explained Souheil Natour, a Palestinian journalist and member of the central committee of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).

“In recent months, he has deliberately kept a low profile, especially during the clashes last July, as he played a role in restoring calm,” he added.

Since the Israeli accusations, the Fatah board in Lebanon has maintained silence.

L’Orient-Le Jour obtained information that the Maqdah case is under examination in Ramallah — the stronghold of this Palestinian movement.

While awaiting the outcome of these proceedings, Fatah is striving to defend its leader.

“The information disseminated by the Israeli army may not be accurate,” said Kouchmar.

Several Lebanese analysts, including Khaldoun Sharif and Mohanad Hajj Ali, shared this opinion. Both experts expressed skepticism about Maqdah engaging in activities such as arms smuggling that could potentially trigger an unwanted escalation in Lebanon.

Hicham Debsi, a Palestinian analyst, asserted that “Maqdah cannot make such a decision [to facilitate the smuggling of Iranian weapons] and act unilaterally because that would put him at odds with Fatah, to whom he would then have to answer.”

“Especially since the movement’s policy is clear. Fatah opposes any attempt to drag Lebanon into a military confrontation [with Israel] from its territory,” Debsi said.

Worst-case scenario

Despite these assurances, tensions remain high.

The Israeli army has publicly leveled accusations against the Palestinian officer amid increasing threats of a full-scale war against Lebanon. Escalation increased for several days in the south, which has emerged as a stronghold for supporting Hamas.

Many parties including Fatah, harbor fears of a worst-case scenario: Under significant international pressure, Israel may consider expanding the scope of confrontations in Lebanon by targeting Palestinian camps — including Ain al-Hilweh — under the pretext of combating arms smuggling.

“Fears abound, as everyone is aware that Israel does not require pretexts to launch an attack against the Palestinians,” said Kouchmar. He noted that Fatah has initiated preparatory measures for the upcoming phase.

A meeting was held on Wednesday by the Head of the Saida Municipality Hazem Khodr Badihto discuss a crisis and disaster management plan. Its importance should be understood in this context.

“The Maqdah affair raises fear of strikes against Palestinian refugee camps, as [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is resolute in eradicating Hamas wherever it exists, including in Lebanon,” said Khalil Helou, a retired army general.

Hajj Ali offers a slightly more nuanced perspective: “Israel may indeed conduct a targeted operation against Mounir Maqdah.”

“However, I doubt it would escalate to the extent of bombing Palestinian camps daily, as is currently occurring on the southern front,” he added. He highlighted the substantial civilian casualties that could result from such actions.

Netanyahu does not seem to have an interest in this, especially amid his discord with US President Joe Biden.

“I doubt it will escalate to attacks on the camps, given the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran and the clear limit on confrontation, despite the current tension between Washington and Tel Aviv,” Debsi said.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.