Is the coalition in Israel crumbling?

Never before have so many signs pointed to the mistrust towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His rival Benny Gantz traveled to Washington in early March against his will, demonstrating the growing frustration in the US towards Netanyahu.

On Monday evening, centrist minister Gideon Saar resigned after Netanyahu refused to include him in the war cabinet, thus increasing the pressure on Gantz to do the same. Gantz also threatened to quit if the bill exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription was passed.

Thomas Vescovi, an independent researcher in history and an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, spoke to L’Orient-Le Jour about the possibility of early elections in Israel.

OLJ: What are the chances of Benny Gantz leaving his post in the war cabinet? What impact would it have on Netanyahu’s government?

Vescovi: Since the start of the Israeli operation in Gaza, Benny Gantz has been particularly loyal. He only wants to talk about that and refuses to discuss other political considerations. Nevertheless, the respite that Netanyahu got can be mainly explained by the entry of opposition figures into the war cabinet as part of a government of national emergency. However, Israeli society — including his own electorate — considers him to be largely responsible for the Oct. 7 chaos and the Israeli army’s inability to bring back the hostages and eradicate Hamas.

Without the presence of Benny Gantz or Gadi Eisenkot [war cabinet observer and minister without portfolio], Netanyahu would lose any form of remaining legitimacy and credibility. He will have no choice but to go to the polls, because if he continues to believe that he can maneuver and stay in power until the next elections, scheduled for 2026, Israeli society is likely to be much more vocal than it has been so far.

OLJ: Are early elections realistic in the current context, given that the last legislative elections were repeated several times because it was impossible to form a coalition?

Vescovi: So far, most Israelis have been opposed to elections in times of war. Early elections could only be held when there is a temporary or permanent cease-fire. Similarly, they would only be called for if there was a real deadlock in the Knesset that prevented the government from continuing. It is improbable that Netanyahu would dissolve his government on his own. For there to be a deadlock in Parliament, the government coalition would have to crumble, and for the moment nothing concrete points to that.

Of course, criticism is mounting, but the government members, particularly the Likud, and the far right perceive the polls just like everyone else and know very well that there is a real risk of going to the elections without having achieved something, let’s say “positive,” from their point of view, in Gaza. For the Likud, it’s about the hostages’ return. As for the far right, it’s the beginning of the recolonization of the Gaza Strip, which is what they want so badly.

However, the issue of conscription for the ultra-Orthodox is likely to break the ruling coalition. As the Knesset is due to hold sessions this week dedicated to bills involving the ultra-Orthodox in the Israeli society’s collective effort to deal with the war in Gaza, the ultra-Orthodox, who benefit from exemption from conscription, are finding themselves increasingly pushed to take part in the war effort. However, the ultra-Orthodox parties believe that their military conscription is a red line that must not be crossed. It is clear that if Netanyahu cannot find common ground, the coalition will not be able to hold together for very long.

OLJ: If the election were to be held, could it play into Benjamin Netanyahu’s hands?

Vescovi: The outcome of the elections is very uncertain. One mustn’t forget that the polls currently published, which show a sort of obvious defeat for the Netanyahu camp, were carried out in the context of the war. Public opinion is therefore boiling by what is happening in Gaza and by the fate of the hostages.

But nothing says that this will be the case tomorrow, in the context of a negotiation or even if the Israeli army manages to get its hands on one of the senior Hamas leaders or a hideout of hostages. There is a good chance that Netanyahu could improve his image by explaining that the line he had decided on — refusing to negotiate on Hamas’s terms and, above all, a military operation until a victory is achieved — is the one that has enabled him to achieve this result. This could therefore be completely reversed in the polls and Netanyahu could make a comeback.

Throughout 2023, demonstrations and a large-scale popular movement divided the society. Yet, the Oct. 7 [attack] prevented this opposition political process from going all the way. And so, since Oct. 7, we have seen various Israeli leaders announcing their withdrawal from politics, believing that they did their share and that this event requires a new sequence and therefore new political figures. It is possible to form new coalitions or alliances. Unfortunately, it is far too early to talk about this as long as a genocidal war continues in the Gaza Strip and, above all, as long as there is no majority will in Israel to go to the polls.

Netanyahu’s strategy is to gain time at all costs. He has no long-term plans, not even until 2026. His first vision is the US presidential election scheduled for November 2024 and the hope of seeing Donald Trump win the election. This would give him free reign to do as he pleases in Israel and with the Palestinians, restore his image and demonstrate that he is the one and only master of the country.

This article was published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.