Montage with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman, and American leader Joe Biden. (Credit: Jaimee Lee Haddad/L'Orient-Le Jour)
Hamas’ Oct. 7 deadly attack on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza had suspended the Saudi-Israeli talks on normalization. Saudi Arabia has put normalization back on the table while strengthening its demands, including those linked to the Palestinians.
This diplomatic agreement is an integral part of the so-called “Biden doctrine” for the Middle East. The doctrine consists of the US showing firmness against Iran and its regional proxies, initiating the establishment of a Palestinian state and strengthening their security cooperation with the Saudi kingdom.
What Saudi Arabia expect from the Israelis
Halting the Israeli aggression on Gaza and withdrawing troops is the essential condition for KSA. Washington tried to use Saudi Arabia’s recognition [of Israel] to force its Israeli ally to comply with its demands. Opinion polls in Arab countries showed that there is a clear rejection of normalization with Israel, especially under Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, which is Israel’s most right-wing.
Riyadh can not neglect this fact while it hopes to distinguish itself from the UAE, which normalized in 2020 under the Abraham Accords by unsuccessfully negotiating a halt of plans for annexations, or to reappropriate the Palestinian cause in the face of Iran and its “Axis of Resistance.”
An “irrevocable” pathway towards a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital is another condition. Initially, Saudi Arabia’s demand was limited to a promise to consider the two-state solution, for it to retain its legitimacy as guardian of the two holy mosques. Yet, many analysts believed that the issue was secondary for Riyadh.
However, amid the war in Gaza, it recently called for the creation of an “irrevocable” pathway towards a Palestinian state. Then, it made normalization conditional on the “recognition of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital” — without specifying from which country this must come.
Having put the two-state solution along with other countries back on the table, the Biden administration recently revealed that it reviewed different options on a US possible recognition of the Palestinian state after the war, which points to the impatience with Israel ahead of the US presidential election.
The US even called for a Palestinian Authority (PA) to take charge of all Palestinian territories after the end of the war as part of a Palestinian state, provided that the PA is “revitalized.”
Pretending to open a small door to a political solution, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday, “A potential peace agreement that makes Israel so weak and unable to defend itself would set peace backward and not forward.”
What Saudi Arabia expects from the US
KSA expects a defense security agreement between Washington and Riyadh. It’s a sort of return to the oil-for-security doctrine, made official this time, which would have a deterrent effect against the Islamic Republic, and which would bind the two partners in the long term.
Discussions on the potential agreement that took place before Oct.7 have not been made public, but experts have put forward many ideas. These include treaties recognizing Gulf security as part of the US national interest, declaring the Gulf countries as major non-NATO allies, and a formal mutual security commitment along the lines of those signed with Japan and South Korea. Such a treaty, which would signal a US re-engagement in the region, would still need to be validated by the US Congress, which is far from being anonymous on the issue.
Saudi Arabia also expects US assistance to develop a civilian nuclear energy program in Saudi Arabia, with the possibility of enriching uranium on its territory. This would make the kingdom the second regional power to hold this prerogative after Iran. This possibility certainly worries the US and Israel, who were nevertheless seriously considering this option before Oct.7 while seeking to put safeguards in place. US elected representatives including Democrats raised their concerns on several occasions. Riyadh has consistently denied any military purposes, although Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News on Sept. 20 that if Iran did get a nuclear weapon, so would Arabia.
Finally, KSA expects easing restrictions on US arms sales to Riyadh. These restrictions on the so-called “offensive” weapons have been in place since the beginning of 2021, shortly after Joe Biden arrived in the White House, because of the war crimes committed by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen since 2015. Even before the war in Gaza, bipartisan elected representatives regularly disapproved of arms sale contracts given the state of human rights in the country.
What is expected of Saudi Arabia
KSA is expected to pave the way for other normalization agreements. As protector of the two holy mosques and initiator of Arab peace initiatives that make normalization conditional on Palestinian statehood, Riyadh’s potential recognition of Israel has unparalleled symbolic significance. It would mark Israel’s integration into a reconfigured Middle East and would be a major victory for Netanyahu, which would probably enable him to ensure his political survival.
Saudi Arabia is expected to fund the Palestinian territories. Since 2016, Riyadh has reduced its financial support for the PA, until it stopped it in 2021. The kingdom injected more than $5 billion into the occupied territories since the creation of Israel. In April 2023, MBS offered PA President Mahmoud Abbas a resumption of his aid on a condition, according to the Wall Street Journal. Riyadh is now also expected to address the Gaza reconstruction issue, for which it hopes to obtain guarantees from the Israeli side.
KSA is finally expected to distance itself from China on strategic issues. During talks on normalization before the war, Washington reportedly asked Saudi Arabia to refrain from embarking on projects with Huawei, to restrict Chinese access to their military bases and not to use the renminbi in bilateral trade transactions, Saudi media outlet al-Majalla reported. At the G7 summit in New Delhi in September, Biden and his partners also announced the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project that connects Asia to Europe, via Saudi Arabia, as a way to compete with China’s New Silk Roads.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.