Why have Hezbollah-Israel clashes decreased?

The pace of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah fluctuates per the context’s circumstances. Over the past four days, attacks have been limited and confined to specific areas along the border, with no in-depth strikes on either side.

These respite periods are synonymous with the negotiations taking place behind the scenes, particularly between the US and Iran. According to well-informed sources, contacts between these two powers have not been interrupted, with several channels of communication open, including in Oman and renewed direct talks in Geneva.

Corroborative diplomatic sources said the two sides are seeking to reach an agreement and seem to be converging on a fundamental principle: No escalation and no expansion of the conflict should happen, as they both want to avoid a regional war.

These exchanges came at a time when US pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to have him avoid — or at least postpone — a battle in Rafah, which is now home to more than a million displaced people, and to have him agree to a humanitarian ceasefire.

The US is insisting on a truce to allow the release of hostages, including several US citizens. However, Netanyahu insists on carrying out an offensive in Rafah and on pursuing his objectives, which has complicated his relations with US President Joe Biden, whom he accuses of having turned his back on Israel.

Iran is trying to capitalize on these differences while seeking not to provoke the Israelis to avoid a major war and spare Hezbollah the fait accompli.

It is against this backdrop that Hezbollah has lowered the intensity of its operations, although its Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, continues to stress that the south Lebanon front will remain open until a truce is reached in Gaza.

Massive destruction

At the military level, targeted Israeli operations aimed at eliminating Hezbollah leaders have dropped, as have the strikes on the outskirts of Saida and Baalbeck. Israel is focusing its attacks on the border area, in particular the towns of Aita al-Shaab, Kfar Kila, Mais al-Jabal, Houla, Markaba and Blida.

Previously, the main targets had been Aitaroun, Ramieh, Marwahine, Alma Shaab and Dhairah. In recent days, the village of Adaisseh has been in the firing line. The Israelis are working to cause massive destruction in these villages to prevent Hezbollah from setting up there, as part of the wider objective of hitting any infrastructure that enables the Shiite militia to remain at the border.

This is because the Israelis are seeking to consolidate, with a view to any future negotiations, the principle that they will not accept the presence of Hezbollah’s al-Radwan elite force within a 10-kilometer radius of the border.

However, the major destruction operations that are currently carried out by the Israelis are limited to a strip of five kilometers. According to a well-informed source, the al-Radwan fighters are no longer focused on the front line and have deployed to deeper areas.

“They continue to be present during the execution of operations, at the end of which they withdraw,” added the source.

The Israelis are also targeting mountainous areas, valleys and roads, intending to obstruct Hezbollah’s supply lines. Hezbollah is concentrating its operations on Israeli military bases located on the border.

On the political front, given Israel’s inflexibility regarding the battle of Rafah, there have been reports of coordination meetings between the “axis of resistance” forces through the joint military operations room.

They included Hezbollah, Palestinian factions, including Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, as well as the Houthis and Iraqi groups. The objective is to examine ways to increase pressure on Israel if Netanyahu persists in his threats against the southern Gaza Strip.

“It was agreed that the attacks would be stepped up if the Israelis launched an operation against Rafah,” said a source familiar with the discussions. “This has been firmly communicated to the Americans.”

Lebanon too continues to receive threats that, in the absence of a diplomatic agreement, the Israeli army will head north after the battle of Rafah and engage in war with Hezbollah.

However, Hezbollah continues to believe that Israel is exhausted and therefore incapable of waging this war, and is relying on the pressure placed by the Americans who oppose this prospect.

This pressure has irritated Netanyahu who perceives it as US interference in his country’s internal affairs, which has prompted him to retaliate through a campaign against Washington from the US capital. At the most recent conference of the pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, many raised their voices against Biden, calling on Tel Aviv to continue the war in Rafah and Lebanon, without making any concessions or backing down.

Behind the scenes, and while there have been several Israeli reports that preparations are underway to escalate strikes and create buffer zones, the search for a political settlement is continuing, based on the US-Iran negotiations.

It's through this prism that the meeting held in February between Nasrallah and Esmail Ghaani, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, needs to be understood. Both parties reaffirmed their willingness to avoid war despite Israeli provocations.

Based on that, Hezbollah maintained its operations within the rules of engagement and established a red line for the Israelis: A potential ground invasion could change the rules of the game.

Houthis to the rescue?

This is also the background to the leaked information about the meeting held in Beirut between the Houthis and Hamas last week, which probably coincided with the meeting between a Hamas delegation — led by its deputy leader in the Gaza Strip, Khalil al-Hayya — and Nasrallah.

According to leaked information, the discussions between Hamas and the Houthis focused on expanding the front in Yemen to support the Islamist movement and strengthen its position. The main purpose of these leaks is to emphasize the fighting in Yemen and the Red Sea, rather than in south Lebanon.

The escalation in Yemen could put additional pressure on the US to revive the negotiation process with Iran, which has already been done. During previous negotiations between the two parties, Iran asked the US to prevent Israel from carrying on its assassinations against Hezbollah members and to urge them to de-escalate confrontations in Lebanon.

They also asked for an end to assassinations of the Popular Mobilization Units’ members in Iraq and to the strikes against the Houthis, which the Americans refused, opting instead for escalation. However, Iraqi attacks against US targets and interests in Syria and Iraq came to a halt.

In this vein, the statement that the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued on Sunday that it does not wish to go to war with Lebanon and that it is seeking a diplomatic agreement also points to Israel’s willingness to explore options other than military escalation.

This would breathe new life into the approach of US envoy Amos Hochstein, with whom Netanyahu did not meet during his recent tour of Israel and Lebanon.

According to informed sources, as soon as a ceasefire is agreed in Gaza, Hochstein will resume his efforts in Lebanon, believing that Hezbollah will rush to an agreement.

At the cabinet meeting on Tuesday, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he is confident that “the truce in Gaza will apply to all the countries in the region.” Hence, all eyes continue to be focused on the Palestinian territories.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.