Protesters wave Lebanese and Palestinian flags during a demonstration opposing the United States' recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Downtown Beirut, 2017. (Credit: Joseph Eid/AFP)
The two-state solution is back in vogue. Considered by the international community as the only realistic option to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly after the 1993 Oslo Accords, this peace plan broadly provides for the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Admittedly, there are still many details to be negotiated — including the right of return for refugees, Israeli settlements and the status of East Jerusalem — and Israel is working to block the creation of such a state.
But since the start of the Oct. 7 war, Arab and international powers, led by Saudi Arabia and the US, have been pushing for the implementation of a two-state solution. Repercussions of this pressure have appeared in Lebanon, where various actors are also pressing for resolution of the 76-year-old conflict.
What do each of the Lebanese parties think of a two-state solution?
The Lebanese state
It was in Beirut in 2002 that the League of Arab States launched its famous peace initiative with Israel at the instigation of then-Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah. Under this initiative, the Arab League proposed to collectively normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in exchange for the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, namely in Gaza and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Officially, Lebanese diplomacy aligned with this vision, but often maintained a low profile to keep from offending Hezbollah, which has opposed any peace agreement with Israel. After the outbreak of the war in October 2023, however, the two-state solution appears to have been taken off the shelf of Lebanon’s official position.
In November, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whose main supporter is Hezbollah, even proposed adding Iran to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. “We will consider the right of Israel and the right of the Palestinians,” he told The Economist. Was it a way to identify himself in front of Arab and Western chancelleries? Perhaps, particularly since, according to Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, Lebanon, Gaza and the region are moving “towards a political solution, even if [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu wants war.”
Hezbollah
Do Amirabdollahian’s remarks indicate that the Iran-aligned party, Hezbollah, is preparing to soften its extremist stance? In a speech in January, Hezbollah’s general secretary Hassan Nasrallah referred to “the return of the two-state solution to the forefront” as a positive result of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. But this did not stop him from repeating the eternal promise that his party would be very close to wiping Israel off the world map. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s sponsor Iran has never supported the two-state solution. Instead, it has advocated for a referendum on self-determination in Mandatory Palestine.
“We are convinced that the Zionist entity is doomed to disappear, sooner or later,” a source close to Hezbollah simply replied, adding that “it is up to the Palestinians to choose whether they accept any formula.”
During a visit to Beirut in February, Amirabdollahian said that the Palestinians themselves will have the last word on the future of the conflict. Is it a way for the “resistance axis” to hide behind Hamas (which is increasingly open to this solution) in the event of a regional agreement involving concessions?
Amal
To Nabih Berri, pragmatism is key, as usual. Since 2002, the speaker of parliament has supported the Arab Peace Initiative, while continuing to present himself as a solid ally of the “resistance.” This position is consistent with the role that he has taken on: that of Hezbollah’s “friendly” Shiite brother, who liaises with the Arabs and the West.
In an interview in August 2006, just after the devastating war Israel waged against Lebanon, he stated that Israel must “choose between the Arab peace initiative and the resistance.” That same year, in the heart of Tehran, Berri called for the creation of “a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, with East Jerusalem as its capital,” and not stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea as the Islamic Republic (prima facie) wishes.
The Free Patriotic Movement
In 2017, Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil, who was on excellent terms with Hezbollah at the time, found himself at the heart of a controversy after acknowledging “Israel’s right to security” on the Iran-aligned al-Mayadeen channel. “We have no ideological problem [with Israel]” Bassil said, adding that he was committed to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. Seven years on, the FPM-Hezbollah alliance is brain-dead, but Bassil continues to say that the two parties “are aligned on strategic issues.”
Yet on Feb. 5, Bassil, also MP for Batroun, welcomed Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, whose government is an ally of Netanyahu. At the joint press conference that followed, Bassil was highly critical of Israel’s policies, but that did not stop him from uttering the word “peace” more than 20 times in the space of a few minutes and from calling for a two-state solution. This can be interpreted as a way to obtain concessions from Israel, and above all, to get on Washington’s good side. This would be in Bassil’s interests because the US imposed sanctions on him in November 2020 and his political future depends on their removal.
The Christian opposition
On the other side of the political spectrum, the two-state solution remains an unaltered position, especially after the start of the war in Gaza. Indeed, parties including the Lebanese Forces (LF) and the Kataeb, are outspoken in their criticism of Hezbollah’s involvement in the war alongside Hamas.
However, these parties, which allied themselves with Israel against Palestinian militias during the Lebanese Civil War, do not want to appear to be aligning themselves with Israel. All the more so since the violence demonstrated by Israel is causing a stir in Lebanon and abroad. These parties therefore insist on the importance of placing pressure to resolve the conflict diplomatically through the creation of a Palestinian state.
Even the Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai, who is close to the opposition, called in early February for a “ceasefire and negotiations capable of paving the way for political and diplomatic solutions to enshrine the principle of the two-State solution.” He even accused Israel of committing “genocide against the Palestinian people.”
The Sunnis
“My heart is with the suffering of the Palestinians, but in my mind there is only room for the two-state solution... which Netanyahu refuses.” This comment, posted on Oct. 8 by former Prime Minister and Sunni leader Saad Hariri, sums up perfectly the Sunni community’s position on the conflict. Admittedly, both Sunni public opinion and the political elite have historically shown solidarity with Palestine, especially at a time when the Sunnis have suffered a series of setbacks (in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, etc.). However, they align themselves with the Arab consensus represented by the 2002 peace initiative, especially since the late Prime Minister Rafic Hariri (assassinated in 2005) was a pillar of that initiative.
The Progressive Socialist Party
Druze leader Walid Joumblatt, whose PSP has long been the standard-bearer of the Palestinian cause in Lebanon, has often expressed skepticism towards a two-state solution, without however mentioning an alternative. In 2020, when US President Donald Trump announced his “deal of the century” to put an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Joumblatt announced the “end” of the two-state solution. Trump’s plan involved allocating a few non-contiguous plots of land to the Palestinians, on which they could found a state one day, “if they give up terrorism.” After the start of the Oct. 7 war, Joumblatt told his party’s media outlet, al-Anbaa, that applying this solution was “difficult, if not impossible.” Then, in February, speaking to Russia Today, he went so far as to describe the two-state solution as a “lie.”
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.