Israel beats war drums in Lebanon, Hezbollah turns deaf ear

The ongoing clashes between Hezbollah and Israel are painting a grim picture of an undeclared war. Within Lebanon, concerns grow as rumors abound of a potential escalation by Israel, possibly heralding a new chapter in this unspoken conflict.

Numerous media reports have surfaced, suggesting that Israel slated Mar. 15 as a deadline for resolving the issue of displaced residents from its border towns adjacent to Lebanon. Failure to address this concern may precipitate a large-scale military intervention.

However, concordant diplomatic sources told L’Orient-Le Jour that such reports are unfounded.

According to these sources, Israel cannot prepare a large-scale operation in such a short space of time. However, recent warnings relayed to Lebanon suggest a potential escalation by mid-April.

This timeframe coincides with the end of Ramadan, and the outcome of the Gaza war in Rafah, south of Gaza, may come to light.

Behind closed doors, some sources even speculate that following the resolution of the Gaza war, Israel might shift focus to Lebanon. Tel Aviv could exploit the ongoing tension and heightened alertness to launch a broader military campaign, aiming to establish a “security zone” in southern Lebanon and deter Hezbollah from border proximity.

Hezbollah dismissed these notions as mere bluster.

During his recent visit to Beirut on Mar. 4, US envoy Amos Hochstein pinned hopes on successful negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza. He conveyed that a halt to hostilities in the Palestinian enclave wouldn’t automatically impact Lebanon.

Hochstein endeavored to delineate Lebanon’s situation from that of Gaza, a stance rejected by Hezbollah.

The collapse of ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Hamas dashed Hochstein’s optimism and led to the suspension of his diplomatic engagements. Nevertheless, his warnings persist, particularly as they coincide with the escalation of Israeli operations, which once again struck the Baalbeck area on Monday evening.

‘We will hit Tel Aviv’

In practice, Tel Aviv is presenting Hezbollah with two stark choices: Either swiftly negotiate a comprehensive agreement in south Lebanon, facilitating the return of Israelis to the north, or face escalating military operations.

Israel aims to achieve its objectives through targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders and officials, as well as the destruction of military installations and sites. Such a protracted conflict would render Lebanon vulnerable to continuous Israeli strikes, akin to the situation in Syria.

Hezbollah continues to dismiss the possibility of a large-scale Israeli operation on Lebanon or a recurrence of the July 2006 war.

“Israel lacks the capability for such an endeavor, particularly given our communication to international mediators that the resistance possesses the means to strike targets near Tel Aviv and inflict significant damage on Israel’s infrastructure,” said a Hezbollah insider on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

The party’s downplaying of Israeli threats is interpreted by some as either a refusal to acknowledge reality, possibly stemming from a misinterpretation of events, particularly within Israel, or as a stance rooted in assurances it has received.

Alternatively, it may signify a willingness to entertain the prospect of a comprehensive agreement.

What remains certain, however, is Israel’s staunch refusal to revert to the status quo that prevailed in southern Lebanon from August 2006 to October 2023, as desired by Hezbollah.

Tel Aviv adamantly opposes allowing the pro-Iranian party to maintain its positions, missile launch pads and heavy weaponry along the border. Israel is actively engaged in dismantling these assets to prevent their reconstruction in the future.

Internally, both the Israeli military and government are preparing for the possibility of a full-scale war, evident through ground-based military exercises and the stockpiling of medical supplies, food and provisions for shelters.

Israel has even taken the extraordinary step of purchasing a port in Cyprus as an alternative to the one in Haifa, which could become a target for Hezbollah in the event of conflict.

The exorbitant cost associated with these preparations suggests that they are more than mere displays of strength or attempts at coercion.

An Israeli invasion?

In diplomatic circles, reports suggest that the Israeli government has contemplated a potential five-kilometer penetration into Lebanese territory. Israeli forces have conducted several tests to evaluate this strategy, including two infiltration attempts near the border towns of Rmaish and Wazzani last week.

“The objective is to assess Hezbollah’s defensive capabilities,” said an army source on condition of anonymity. Furthermore, the extensive bombardment of the border town of Aita al-Shaab and the destruction of entire neighborhoods serve to pave the way for a potential invasion.

According to information gathered from multiple sources, Israel reportedly intends to launch this incursion from sparsely populated areas, such as the eastern sector, Shebaa Farms or the Wazzani area. Its goal is to dismantle and destroy specific sites that are challenging to target from the air, such as communication systems or tunnels.

According to a source close to Hezbollah, the party remains steadfast in ruling out such a possibility. Yet, it is diligently undertaking all requisite measures and preparing as if war were imminent.

“The party is on high alert, especially in response to Israeli infiltration attempts, which it has successfully thwarted,” the source said.

Diplomatic sources revealed that Israel and international stakeholders are fervently striving to prevent Tel Aviv from appearing defeated in this conflict, recognizing the existential risks it would pose. Consequently, the Israelis are keen to avoid a recurrence of the scenario in 2006, when Hezbollah declared victory.

In the present context, unlike the previous conflict, Israelis appear to hold the advantage owing to their technological and computational superiority and the precision of their weaponry — a development Hezbollah did not anticipate.

In this form of confrontation, Israel may not necessitate engaging in a war akin to that seen in Gaza, but it could extend the range of its targets.

Israel’s objective is to dismantle all the infrastructure meticulously developed by Hezbollah over the years. So far, Israeli actions suggest they are operating under a wartime mentality, albeit without significant costs incurred until now.

Hezbollah’s strikes have yet to escalate to the level of full-scale conflict, primarily targeting anticipated areas such as military installations, while Israel is departing from traditional rules of engagement, inflicting direct and substantial damage.

Tel Aviv is unwilling to squander this opportunity by swiftly pursuing a negotiated settlement.

“Israel will demand substantial, unequivocal and public concessions from Hezbollah,” a well-informed Lebanese diplomatic source told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue. “Otherwise, it will resort to the use of force.”

An addendum to UN Resolution 1701

Against this backdrop, various proposals have emerged to mitigate the risk of escalation, including the suggestion of an addendum to Resolution 1701, without modifying its core provisions.

This proposed addendum would outline clear stipulations, including Hezbollah’s withdrawal of heavy weaponry from south of the Litani River, cessation of construction of observation towers, previously erected under the guise of the NGO Green Without Borders and a prohibition on introducing new armaments or establishing additional bases in the region.

In exchange, Beirut will insist on a reference to halting Israeli aggression and securing international commitments for necessary aid toward reconstruction efforts.

Additionally, Lebanon will seek provisions to enhance its energy infrastructure, pending the eventual extraction of oil and gas resources.

The outcome of these proposals hinges largely on the stance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a figure whose actions remain unpredictable.

“He rejects all pressure from US President Joe Biden,” said another diplomatic source.

Consequently, Netanyahu may not entertain overtures from other mediators and could instead choose to escalate tensions, presenting a fait accompli to all parties involved.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.