An Israeli election banner taken during the spring 2020 parliamentary elections showing the two rivals at the time, Benny Gantz (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (Credit: Jack Guez/AFP)
The shadow of a dissolution has been hanging over the Israeli war cabinet for months. Keen on preserving the support of ultra-nationalist and far-right coalition partners, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not failed to stir up discontent among his main political rival, centrist Benny Gantz, who is leading in the polls and is part of the cabinet formed to lead the war in Gaza.
There are many differences of opinion, particularly over the operations management in the Palestinian enclave and the plans for the day after.
While international pressure is mounting on Israel as the death toll exceeded 30,000 in Gaza, according to Hamas, internal tension was exposed earlier this week. Netanyahu’s anger at Gantz’s visit to the White House on Monday, which was widely reported in the press, did not escape anyone.
“Gantz arrived on his own, emerging from a lone vehicle, without an entourage and in defiance of the leader of his country back home,” Haaretz reported on the same day, Netanyahu having ordered his embassy in the US not to take part in the visit.
Although his rival initiated the visit, the Biden administration seized the opportunity to send Netanyahu, who is irritating Biden, a message. According to three Israeli and US officials Axios quoted, the former chief of staff was harshly criticized over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel’s strategy during his meeting with Vice-President Kamala Harris and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
“Yet, it seems clear that the [US] Administration wants Gantz to return to Israel with a message to the Israeli war cabinet: Do much better on the humanitarian dimension of the war,” David Makovsky, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, wrote on X.
“If a hostage deal for a six-week pause works out this week before Ramadan, the bilateral relationship should have time to address,” he added.
The fact that Biden did not meet Gantz indicates that Netanyahu still has room to find favor again in the White House, while he continues to await an invitation to Washington since his return to power over a year ago.
Political exploitation
The trip was seen as an affront by Netanyahu and his far-right allies, who immediately seized on it to win points with the public. In a possible bid to push away a rival with growing popularity, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir suggested on Sunday that Netanyahu sack Gantz for insubordination.
“The US government is looking for places to drive a wedge between Israelis to advance its plans, with the help of Gantz,” said ultra-nationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich after the visit.
"In this way, Gantz is working to advance their [US] plans to establish a Palestinian state," he added, referring to the US desire to empower the Palestinian Authority in Gaza for the day after tomorrow.
During the visit, the US administration reportedly stressed to Gantz that the chances of reaching a mega-agreement with Saudi Arabia are shrinking as the war continues. Israel shows an unwillingness to make progress towards the creation of a Palestinian state as Riyadh requires.
While Netanyahu stated on more than one occasion that he is the only one capable of preventing the creation of a Palestinian state, Smotrich’s comments stemmed from the fact that opposing a two-state solution may enable the coalition to win more support from the right-wing electorate that the centrist opponent attracted.
Since October, opinion polls have not been going well for Netanyahu’s Likud and its controversial partners.
According to Channel 12, a poll conducted in early February showed that the current opposition, which includes Gantz’s National Unity, could win 75 of the 120 seats in the Knesset if legislative elections were held immediately, leaving the pro-Netanyahu bloc far behind with 45 seats.
Anti-Netanyahu protests
Perceived as a threat by Netanyahu, Gantz further deepened the rift last week by supporting Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s call to end military draft exemptions for members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
This popular proposal has been denounced by the prime minister’s ultra-Orthodox allies, key pillars of his coalition, who are likely to resign and bring down the cabinet if the bill is passed.
This has embarrassed Netanyahu, who is guided above all by the desire to survive, and who is maintaining an ambiguous position on the issue while multiplying his efforts to avoid the early elections that a section of the population has demanded.
To justify his position, he raised the fear that elections in wartime would mean Israel’s defeat.
Netanyahu can now speak of the municipal elections of Feb. 27 as a victory and highlight the loyalty of his base.
Although voter turnout has dropped since the last local elections (49 percent compared with 56 percent five years ago), the Likud has managed to keep its head above water by holding on to power in a large number of municipalities that it had won. In contrast, its ultra-Orthodox partners have won two towns that they had never previously governed.
This brief success did not silence the criticism that continues to be directed at Netanyahu in the country as pressure mounts to free the hostages that Hamas still holds in Gaza.
On Saturday, more than 1,000 Israelis protested outside Netanyahu’s house in the north of the country, demanding that the cabinet resign. Opposition leader Yair Lapid joined this demand.
He recently said, “We have two choices. A bad, dangerous, decaying and toxic government, or elections that will lead to a good government, that will restore security to the people of Israel. There is nothing that scares [Hamas leaders] Sinwar and Haniyeh more than the fact that there will be an efficient, secure Israeli government with backing from the world, and a functioning economy.”
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.