A Hezbollah flag planted near the Lebanese-Israeli border, 2019. (Credit: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)
“The Israelis are testing the waters,” said a source with close ties to Hezbollah, referring to the two unconfirmed attempted Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon on Sunday evening, which the party claimed to have thwarted.
These maneuvers, executed just hours before US envoy Amos Hochstein was set to begin a tour of Beirut and Tel Aviv in a bid to establish a truce, evidently aimed at exerting pressure on the party to acquiesce to concessions and facilitate the safe repatriation of residents in Israeli border towns.
However, assertions from Hezbollah suggest that these actions have yielded the opposite effect.
According to the party, the two infiltration operations occurred around midnight on Sunday night, with only 30 minutes separating them.
The first operation originated from the Qatmoun site, situated opposite the village of Rmaish, while the second originated from the Israeli Zarit site, opposite the town of Ramaya.
“Israel’s intent was clearly to assess the border’s permeability, particularly in the vicinity of the strategic village of Aita al-Shaab,” said a source closely associated with Hezbollah on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
This town, heavily targeted by Israeli bombardments since Oct.8, holds immense strategic importance, being a mere three kilometers from the Blue Line on the border and facing numerous Israeli military sites.
It was in this area that Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in July 2006, precipitating a devastating 33-day war during which the Israeli state unsuccessfully attempted to seize Aita al-Shaab.
‘A particularly risky operation’
Eighteen years after the events of 2006, Israel’s recent attempted incursions into this area served as a stark warning to Hezbollah. This occurred amidst calls from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet for Hezbollah to withdraw from the border area and halt its increasingly precise and deadly bombardments and targeted strikes.
These operations came mere days following a US warning of a potential Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon that could be launched in late spring or early summer if diplomatic efforts fail to push Hezbollah back from Israel’s northern border.
Moreover, a few days before these events, Hezbollah aired a video through its media outlets, depicting a simulated Israeli infiltration at Aita al-Shaab. The footage portrays soldiers advancing towards the village, encountering Hezbollah forces, and eventually retreating to Israel while carrying their fallen comrades.
Despite previous failed attempts in the early weeks of the conflict, Israel persisted in its efforts on Sunday.
“The Israeli army might have sought to gather intelligence or plant explosive devices in the region,” said Nicholas Blanford, an expert at the Atlantic Council with a focus on Hezbollah arms. “This operation is particularly perilous, given Hezbollah’s extensive deployment in the area.”
“In reality, Israeli soldiers who were deployed were taken aback by the level of readiness demonstrated by the resistance,” said a source with close ties to Hezbollah on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. “Israeli officials told the displaced people in the North that Hezbollah move away from the borderline in compliance with Israeli demands.”
“But, in the end they were the ones who were forced by our missiles and mines,” the source added.
Particularly significant is the fact that the second attempted incursion on Sunday was carried out by the Golani Brigade, renowned for its extensive experience on the Lebanese front and its status as one of the Israeli army’s most decorated infantry units.
On the Israeli side, both the military and the media have adopted a low-key approach regarding these incidents, refraining from offering commentary, confirmation or denial.
Could this indicate a sense of embarrassment at what might be interpreted as Hezbollah’s advantage on the ground?
“Hezbollah fighters are positioned along the border and possess the capability to detect any movement and prepare for an ambush,” said Blanford.
While Tel Aviv typically maintains superiority in espionage, bombing or raids, ground operations could present a less straightforward scenario.
“That’s why we have many examples of Israeli incursions that failed, both in this recent episode and previously,” Blanford added. For instance, in August 2013, four Israeli soldiers were injured by an explosion during an incursion in Labbouneh, near Naqoura.
Could this minor victory suffice to restore the balance of deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah, especially considering Hezbollah’s perceived weakening position?
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Sahar Ghoussoub.