The PA government in Ramallah has resigned, what next?

Negotiations had been ongoing behind the scenes for some time. On Monday, the Palestinian Authority (PA) government submitted its resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas, paving the way for the formation of a technocratic cabinet amidst the war in the Gaza Strip. Hamas, which has been in control of Gaza since 2007 and is responsible for the Oct. 7 attack, is not expected to be represented in the new government, which will be announced by the end of the week and is intended to be non-partisan.

Mohammed Mustafa, the chairman of the board of the Palestinian Investment Fund who is close to Fatah, but considered neutral enough to bridge the gap between the various Palestinian factions, is expected to lead the new government. This step meets international — particularly American — demands to “revitalize” governance in Ramallah, to take control of Gaza in addition to the occupied West Bank. A next step could involve creating a vice president position that would assume some prerogatives of the presidency.

Pressure for reforms

"This ministerial reshuffle means that the PA is under pressure from its regional and international allies to comply with post-war plans," analyzed Tahani Mustafa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group. Officially supporting a two-state solution with a unified Palestinian government, Washington is pushing for reforms that could bolster the legitimacy of Mahmoud Abbas and the Ramallah government, which has been criticized by Palestinians for their security cooperation with Israel, mismanagement, and endemic corruption.

To demonstrate goodwill, Ramallah announced at the end of January the appointment of new regional governors, changes in the recruitment of security forces, liberalization of the media sector, and restructuring of the healthcare domain, while calling for general elections open to all Palestinian factions. With still unclear contours, this package of reforms was announced shortly after a meeting in Bahrain between the Palestinian president and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who urged Abbas to “move forward and engage in certain efforts.” This is a request that the United States also intends to relay through Arab countries that could support the Palestinian government, especially those fearing Hamas, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Egypt.

While not participating in the new government, Hamas seems to have approved its parameters. A source within the group reported to al-Araby al-Jadeed that Hamas had informed other Palestinian parties that it would support a national unity government within a unified framework and according to a specific program. After inter-Palestinian talks in Cairo and then a visit by Abbas to Doha in mid-February, Qatar, which hosts Hamas's political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, informed Ramallah of the Islamist movement's acceptance of the formation of a technocratic government tasked with rebuilding Gaza and restoring security after the war, according to Sky News Arabia. This solution — even if it excludes Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by Israel and its Western allies — could displease Tel Aviv. "Gaging from previous statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it seems very unlikely that any change within the PA is really gonna suffice for the current extreme right-wing government in Israel right now, which is demanding the reoccupation of Gaza, and simply do not want any palestinian state or entity governing Gaza," emphasized Mustafa.

Palestinian Unity

Nevertheless, the Israeli state could find itself faced with a fait accompli, while it has long exploited divisions between Palestinian factions. According to Sky News Arabia, Hamas has now agreed to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the only entity internationally recognized as representing the Palestinian people, on condition that it is linked to a clear political horizon for the creation of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. Previously, the Islamist movement demanded fundamental reforms for this umbrella organization dominated by its Fatah rival, which has recognized Israel's existence and committed to respecting past peace agreements with the Israeli state.

"Our ground is very clear. Two states on the borders of 1967, through peaceful means. The Palestinians need to be under one umbrella," said outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh during the Munich Security Conference in mid-February. "As long as there is no unity, the government can only implement the plans of the international community," suggested Hamada Jaber, of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), and co-founder of the One State Foundation (OSF). “Only with Palestinian unity can we talk about a political horizon and solution," Jaber said.

While attempts at Palestinian reconciliation have so far resulted in successive failures, Thursday will see Moscow try to create an agreement between a dozen factions, just days after the government's resignation.

Recognition of a Palestinian State

With the war in Gaza, the two-state solution has nevertheless resurfaced as the only way to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Faced with the threat from its closest allies, namely the US and UK, agreeing to recognize a Palestinian state, the Israeli parliament rejected (by 99 votes out of 120) in a declarative vote, any unilateral recognition of such an entity. "A settlement, if it is to be reached, will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions," said Benjamin Netanyahu at the time.

However, to calm regional tensions, Washington is dangling the carrot of normalization with Saudi Arabia in front of its ally , which demands in exchange a commitment to open an "irrevocable" path to the establishment of a Palestinian state. "There will be no diplomatic relations with Israel until an independent Palestinian state is recognized within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital," said the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement on Feb. 7 in an unusually firm tone. Before Oct. 7, Riyadh had hinted at a resumption of its financial aid to Ramallah in exchange for the PA regaining control of security in the occupied territories. While a portion of the revenues intended for the PA has been blocked by the Israeli government since the start of the war and thousands of Palestinian workers can no longer work in Israel, Ramallah's coffers are more than ever in need of replenishment. "The next government will be expected to respond to its Western and regional allies as the previous one did," warned Mustafa. "Nothing will change regarding mandate or responsibility; it's just a change of personnel."

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.