Opposition deputies in Parliament. Dec. 15, 2023. (Credit: Photo taken from the X account of Kataëb leader Samy Gemayel)
Presidential elections in Lebanon have been blocked for over a year and the issue is becoming all the more pressing as Lebanon faces the serious threat of full blown war between Hezbollah and Israel.
The anti-Hezbollah opposition camp has announced plans to take action towards electing “a president capable of protecting the country” in recent days.
This was decided following a meeting held last week between representatives of the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Kataeb, Michel Moawad’s Renewal group, and three Change MPs, namely Mark Daou, Waddah Sadek and Michel Douaihy, in addition to Zahle MP Bilal Houshaymi. So, what can we expect in practice?
The statement’s signatories reiterated their support for the candidacy of former Finance Minister Jihad Azour. They have agreed with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) on Azour, against the candidacy of Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh, who Amal and Hezbollah support.
“Opposition MPs will vote for Azour [who as of now is also supported by the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)] as long as the opposing camp insists on imposing its candidate, and refuses to meet the opposition halfway after the concession the latter made by giving up its candidate in order to facilitate the election of a president,” reads the statement.
The statement refers to the fact that the LF, Kataeb, PSP and some independents, renounced support for the candidacy of Michel Moawad, whom the pro-Hezbollah camp perceives as a “defiant candidate.”
“The opposing camp believes that we do not have the means to confront their obstinacy in supporting Sleiman Frangieh,” LF MP George Okais, who attended the meeting, told L’Orient-Le Jour.
“Personally, I don’t rule out the possibility of going back to the option of supporting Mouawad,” he said, clarifying however, that this does not represent the official position of the LF.
At this stage, leading opposition figures are working on what they call an “initiative to facilitate and accelerate the presidential election,” according to one senior Kataeb official.
Sources told L’Orient-Le Jour that this “initiative” seeks to bring more MPs into the opposition ranks, a majority of whom are part of the 31 MPs who signed the statement.
“We want to bring on board as many people as possible who are considered to be sovereign figures,” said one opposition MP who requested anonymity. According to him, the new group will be active on several fronts. Firstly, it will have to press for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 to spare Lebanon a full-scale war.
Joining the quintet
Regarding the presidential election, the opposition will rely on the efforts and statements made by the quintet involved in the Lebanese file (US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar) to push for the election of a third-way figure.
“We can form delegations to visit the countries concerned to increase the pressure. All the more so as the pressure exerted by the quintet bore fruit when the term of office of Army Chief Joseph Aoun was extended [on Dec. 15],” said the statement’s signatories.
This sentence insinuates that the quintet’s envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, openly advocated for keeping Gen. Joseph Aoun in his position during his visit to Beirut in late November. Gen. Aoun is the undeclared favorite presidential candidate of several chancelleries.
Several opposition figures were keen to clarify that this initiative does not imply the camp's readiness to abandon certain constants. Thus, there is no question, for the time being, of giving up Azour’s candidacy or agreeing to take part in the dialogue called for by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
In August 2023, Berri offered an initiative providing for several days of dialogue followed by open sessions with successive rounds of voting until a president is elected.
The Anti-Hezbollah camp was quick to reject Berri’s proposal, which they considered an attempt to impose Amal and Hezbollah’s preferred candidate.
“As long as there is no clear statement that things are progressing towards a third-way figure likely to garner the necessary votes for his election, dialogue will be a wasted effort,” said Kataeb MP Salim Sayegh.
“The opposition seeks to present serious alternatives in the face of those who accuse all their opponents of treason,” he added.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.