Biden struggles with the use of 'carrots and sticks' on Israel

Joe Biden walks a tightrope between his unwavering support for Israel and his desire to calm the situation in the Middle East in the run-up to the presidential elections in November. Faced with the threat of Trump returning to the White House — something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be betting on — Biden’s hands seem relatively tied when it comes to influencing his ally amid the war in Gaza. On the one hand, Biden is trying to put pressure on Tel Aviv by offering some concessions to the Palestinians. On the other hand, he is using the levers at his disposal to influence the course of the war, hoping in particular to reduce its intensity and ensure that Israel protects Palestinian civilians.

Levers of Influence

The US said on Sunday that it would veto Algeria’s draft UN Security Council resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza, which is supposed to be put to the vote this week. Above all, the US is preparing to send a new shipment of bombs and other weapons to Israel, even though it opposes Israel’s plan to invade Rafah in the absence of a plan to protect the 1.5 million Gazans who have taken refuge there. The shipment includes about 1,000 MK-82 500-pound (227kg) bombs and 1000 KMU-572 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs) that turn unguided munitions into precision-guided bombs, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing anonymous US officials.

In total, the arms package is worth tens of millions of dollars, to be financed by US military aid to Israel. Israel has already received around 21,000 precision-guided munitions from Washington since the start of the war in October, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Could this new delivery of precision-guided weapons reflect the US’ desire to limit the number of civilians killed in Gaza, where Israel’s destructive campaign has claimed almost 29,000 lives in less than five months, according to the enclave’s Health Ministry?

Biden intends to use these levers to rapidly realize his ambitions for the Middle East, to which he hopes to link an end to the war in Gaza. He aims to link the release of the Israeli hostages to a regional peace agreement that would include a two-state solution, the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the halt of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, with a land border demarcation agreement.

On Saturday, during the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli President Isaac Herzog that Washington expects Israel to adopt significant measures to protect civilians in Gaza, Haaretz reported.

At the conference, Blinken also spoke of “an extraordinary opportunity” in the Middle East. He claimed that “virtually every Arab country” now wants to normalize its relations with Israel, and implied that the US is pushing Israel to accept its plan, even though Israel will have to make the most concessions to reach an agreement.

“Whatever ambitious plans Biden administration has for Israeli-Palestinian peace, bring them on,” wrote Aaron David Miller, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on X. “Hard to make the situation worse,” he added.

Although he is in no hurry to launch his Rafah offensive, Netanyahu seems determined to carry out his operation on the southern border town, ignoring the recommendations of his ally.

Some observers even believe that the American statements are cosmetic. “The US officials complain in public and private that the Israelis simply won’t listen to American advice,” wrote Thanassis Cambanis, director of Century Foundation, on the think tank’s website. “That claim rings ever more hollow by the day. It’s not that the American government cannot influence Israeli action. It’s simply choosing not to,” he added.

Gestures towards the Palestinians

While the Biden administration does not seem prepared to go much further, as it has neither threatened to suspend the $14 billion in military aid to Israel — which the House of Representatives has yet to approve after being voted on by the Senate — nor taken any concrete steps towards the official recognition of a Palestinian state, the US President has recently stepped up his gestures in favor of the Palestinians.

On Feb. 1, Biden signed an executive order banning four Israeli settlers who had committed acts of violence in the West Bank from entering the US and imposed financial sanctions on them. This order marks the strongest measure ever taken by an American administration to combat this phenomenon. On Wednesday, he announced an order to shield Palestinians in the United States from deportation for the next 18 months given the humanitarian situation in the occupied territories and Gaza.

Recalling his position in favor of the creation of a Palestinian state and to see a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority (PA) that would govern the occupied territories and the enclave after the war, he is also trying to work around a law that prevents sending funds directly to the PA, without having to get the Congress’s approval, The Wall Street Journal reported. In particular, this would involve unfreezing the PA’s tax revenues withheld by Israel. The PA risks running out of funds to pay civil servants and provide public services by the end of February, it noted.

It is also a way for Biden to reconnect with the section of his electorate that is disappointed by his policy towards the war in Gaza. In a closed-door meeting with Arab-Americans in Michigan last week, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer admitted that errors had been made in the administration’s response to the war in Gaza — a sign pointing to the growing pressure the Democrats are placing on President Biden said The New York Times.

Finer acknowledged “missteps,” saying he does not have “any confidence” in the Israeli cabinet’s willingness to take “meaningful steps” towards a Palestinian state, which the US has called for, reported the daily.

The Arab-Muslim community in the US is nevertheless calling for concrete action. At a meeting with senior White House officials on Thursday, leaders of the community asked the Biden administration to allow 50,000 Palestinians from Gaza, who have relatives in the US, to come to the US, under an immigration provision known as humanitarian parole.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.