Saad Hariri paying his respects on Wednesday, Feb.14, 2024 at his father's grave, surrounded by a crowd of supporters, in downtown Beirut. (Credit: João Sousa/L'Orient-Le Jour)
“All in good time,” the leader of the Future Movement and former Prime Minister Saad Hariri summed up his intentions about his possible return to politics. The Sunni leader, who withdrew from politics on Jan. 24, 2022, thus implied that he is not closing the door to this possibility, but that he is waiting for the right timing.
According to a number of his advisors, the right time is closely linked to the regional settlement anticipated in the wake of the war, and which is now looming.
What must be learned from Hariri’s last public appearance on the 19th commemoration of his father’s assassination? First of all, a big and jubilant crowd welcomed Hariri who has proven, even during his exile in Abu Dhabi, that he remains the undisputed political leader of the Sunni community.
The popular gathering at Beirut’s Martyrs Square, at Rafik Hariri’s tomb, was much larger than last year. The slogan “Come in large numbers so that he can come back,” was on the dozens of posters at the event. Even if the event was organized, by Hariri’s movement, the fact remains that Hariri’s supporters came from Akkar, Tripoli and the Bekaa Valley to show their loyalty.
Hariri refrained from making a political speech, limiting himself to addressing his supporters, using terms of affection and gratitude, with political undertones.
“Tell everyone that you are back and that without you nothing works in Lebanon,” he said. This first message could not be clearer: Political Harirism remains essential to any possible resolution of the country’s conflicts.
A parade of diplomats
Another highlight of the day was the visit that several political leaders from all sides made, except for Hezbollah, whose senior official Hussein Khalil contacted him by phone.
The visits of diplomats, including the French and US ambassadors, to his Beit al-Wasat residence were significant.
According to a source close to Hariri, both Hervé Magro and Lisa Johnson expressed “their wish to see Hariri resume his political activities.” This indicates that Western diplomacy would not perceive his return negatively.
“There is certainly no veto on his person,” a French diplomatic source told L’Orient-Le Jour. “Moreover, France [and] the international community have never asked Hariri to step down [in January 2022],” the source added.
The source referred to the interview Hariri gave on Wednesday to the Saudi al-Hadath channel, in which he explained his decision to suspend his political career by the fact that “the international community wanted a change in Lebanon at the time.”
‘A regional settlement’
What is certain is that the rumors about the possibility that Hariri would resume his political activities soon were rife well before he arrived in Beirut. Keen on setting the scene in advance, Hariri’s senior advisors indicated, notably to L’Orient-Le Jour, that his visit will be “different” this time from those in the previous years, but that he is waiting for a favorable context — “a regional settlement,” said one of his close associates — to decide on his final return.
In his interview with the al-Hadath channel, Hariri made an indirect reference to the anticipated regional settlement. “We tried everything [in Lebanon and in the region]. Perhaps it is time to try the peace formula,” said the Future movement’s leader, who denounced radicalism — whether Sunni or Shiite — that currently prevails in the region.
“The rapprochement with Iran that Saudi Arabia is currently trying to undertake is an excellent initiative. We are tired of conflicts,” he said.
It is therefore in the light of the results of this rapprochement and the looming settlement between the two axes, that the Sunni leader will eventually be able to return to the arena.
While he alluded in this interview to the modus vivendi once agreed with Hezbollah — the Special Tribunal for Lebanon convicted three members of Hezbollah in his father’s assassination — he pointed out that “those who killed his father will pay the price, one day or another.”
At the time, the modus vivendi was driven by the Sunni leader’s desire to “spare the country a war,” he said.
However, Hariri would probably not be able to return under the same conditions or that modus vivendi which, according to his statements, partly cost him his withdrawal from politics.
When he announced his withdrawal from politics, Hariri acknowledged that he had been forced to make “compromises, including the Doha agreement, the visit to Damascus and the election of Michel Aoun as president, among others, to avoid a civil war.”
At the same time, he denounced Iran’s hold over Lebanon, saying, “I am convinced that there is no positive chance for Lebanon under the shadow of Iranian influence.”
The situation continues to be unchanged today, for the same reasons, as it can be read between the lines, since the country is still without a president, and war rumbles in the south.
“People took actions [on Feb.14], because they realized that political Harirism is essential to curb” this stalemate and this type of development, Hariri estimated.
The final message from his televised interview was “Lebanon's Arab position.” Lebanon must reconcile itself with its natural environment instead of being under Persian influence. This is added to the need to achieve peace in the region, which is a precondition for any economic prosperity in the future.
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.