Rescue workers examine on Thursday the building targeted by an Israeli drone the day before in Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, where an entire family was decimated. (Credit: Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)
Has the decision to break all the rules been taken? Or is the situation on the southern front more of a brinkmanship? Given the dramatic developments in the past 48 hours, the answer will come soon.
The chain of events began on Wednesday morning, when a salvo of rockets targeted a military base in Safed, in northern Israel, located more than 20 kilometers away from the border, killing one soldier, according to the Israeli army, and wounding eight other people.
This operation has been claimed neither by Hezbollah nor the other groups that are active along Lebanon’s southern border, although several observers believe that it bears the mark of Hezbollah.
The strike caused a series of violent reactions in Israel. Israeli Minister Benny Gantz estimated that Hezbollah is responsible for the attack, but also the “Lebanese government.”
Israeli Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Avigdor Lieberman, known for their belligerent stance, called for a virulent response and for expanding the Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi called on the commanders in charge of the northern border to “prepare for war.”
Nabatieh: Prime target?
Israel was quick to retaliate violently. Israeli warplanes carried out “a series of raids” on several border towns.
Our correspondent in the south reported, based on statements from the residents and security sources, that Israeli missiles targeted buildings located on the outskirts of Adsheet in Nabatieh district, Iqlim al-Tuffah and the villages of Bassalia and Sennieh in the Jezzine district, Souaneh in Bint Jbeil district, and Shehabieh, east of Sour, were hit by Israeli missiles.
Although Israel has struck the Jezzine district since Oct. 8, these strikes were rare, as the district is located dozens of kilometers away from the border. In Souaneh, three civilians were killed.
But the deadliest attack, a drone strike, was carried out in the evening on a residential building in Nabatieh, killing at least seven members of the same family. A three-year-old child was pulled alive from under the rubble and hospitalized.
Three Hezbollah members who were in the building were also killed. They include Ali al-Debs, a Hezbollah commander who was wounded on Feb.8 in an Israeli drone strike on his car in the same town, a Lebanese security source told AFP on Thursday.
The three Hezbollah members were on the ground floor of the building, and the decimated family on the first floor, according to the source.
The Israeli army said in a statement that Ali al-Debs, “a commander of Hezbollah’s elite al-Radwan unit, as well as his deputy Ibrahim Issa, and another terrorist,” were killed.
For several days now, Nabatieh has been Israel’s prime target. With a population of around 120,000, it is one of the largest towns in southern Lebanon and the capital of the Nabatieh district and Nabatieh governorate.
It is home to many shops, schools and universities. It is an important stronghold for Hezbollah, which has a large popular base there. The latest strikes in the area consist of a dangerous escalation, as Nabatieh lies in the north of the Litani River. Before that, the fighting was focused in the border area.
Nabatieh’s population density and the potential number of victims, if Israel continues its relentless attack, will be enough to increase Hezbollah’s embarrassment with its popular base, which is paying a heavy price in a war designed to “support Hamas” in its fight in Gaza, in the name of the Iran-aligned axis’ “unity of the fronts.”
Is this why Hezbollah has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack on Safed, for fear of an even more violent Israeli reaction?
While waiting for the picture to become clearer, Hezbollah carried out several attacks on Thursday in retaliation for the killing of civilians the previous day, claiming responsibility for them one after the other.
“In an initial retaliation to the massacres in Nabatieh and Souaneh, the Islamic resistance fighters fired dozens of Katyusha-type rockets at Kiryat Shmona at 5:55 p.m. local time,” Hezbollah said in a statement.
Earlier, it claimed responsibility for a series of attacks on Israeli military posts close to the border.
In separate statements, Hezbollah said five of its fighters have been killed in Israeli raids on Thursday, bringing the number of its members killed since Wednesday to 10.
‘Serious but not irreversible’
In response to these developments, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the “new massacres” of civilians by “the Israeli enemy” in Nabatieh. He said he asked caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib to lodge a complaint with the UN Security Council against Israel.
“While we call on all parties to engage in de-escalation, the Israeli enemy continues its aggressions, which prompts us to ask the relevant international parties about the measures taken to contain the enemy,” he added.
“The bloodshed in Nabatieh ... is in the hands of international envoys, the United Nations and human rights organizations, not to condemn what happened but to act urgently” to stop Israel, said Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in a statement by his press office.
Andrea Tenenti, spokesperson at the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), urged in a statement “all parties involved to halt hostilities immediately.”
The spokesperson for the UN secretary-general said on Wednesday that the “escalation” of violence in the border area “is dangerous and must stop.”
Washington called for favoring the “diplomatic path” to reduce tensions, while the French foreign affairs minister argued that the situation in Lebanon is “serious but is not irreversible.”
Is it? All eyes will be focused on Hassan Nasrallah who is set to speak today for the second time this week. He may have the answer.
On Wednesday, Chairman of Hezbollah’s Executive Council Hashem Safieddine warned that “this aggression ... will not go unanswered.”
But beyond threats, what is the real room for maneuver for the party, which Iran’s foreign affairs minister called upon to exercise restraint during his visit to Lebanon a few days ago?
Deadlock in negotiations?
Despite tension on the ground, political and diplomatic negotiations have been ongoing intending to calm the situation. However, our columnist Mounir Rabih learned from corroborating sources that the current escalation is linked to a certain impasse in the security talks between Iran and the US in the region.
As far as Lebanon is concerned, the negotiations were aimed at reaching an agreement to put an end to Israel’s assassination operations, in exchange for Hezbollah lowering the intensity of its operations. However, the Israelis refused to commit, which caused the failure of the talks, according to the above-mentioned sources.
“Striking the town of Safed is firstly a retaliation to the Israeli threats received by Lebanon through diplomats. Secondly, it is a warning against a possible invasion of Rafah. Thirdly, it is a response to Israel widening the scope of its targets. Hezbollah is seeking to re-establish a balance of deterrence,” said a figure close to the Iran-aligned axis.
Israel is seeking to change the rules of engagement and impose a new equation, by widening the scope of its operations and targeting any Hezbollah official wherever they may be, without sparing civilians.
On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened that his army “can attack not only at 20 kilometers [from the border], but also 50 kilometers, and in Beirut and anywhere else.”
Is that all designed to put pressure on Hezbollah, whether in south Lebanon or the entire country, until the respective sponsors of both sides get to the table of compromise?
This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.