Washington and Tehran find common ground, anticipating Israel’s next move

The Israeli strike in Jadra, the first in the Chouf region, suggests an Israeli willingness to broaden security operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian sent a message to Hezbollah, urging restraint in response to Israeli provocations that could escalate into full-scale war.

Over the past four months, the potential for a significant conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has evolved based on the intentions, actions, and statements of various parties involved.

Once again, the Iranians have reiterated their preference for a diplomatic resolution over military confrontation. The United States appears to share a similar perspective.

The Israelis are persisting in their operations, primarily focused on capitalizing on the opportunity to eliminate as many Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon as possible.

The operation in Jadra, which targeted Bassel Saleh, responsible within Hamas for recruitment in the West Bank, occurred on Saturday.

Hezbollah has yet to retaliate, knowing that it had already responded to the assassination of Hamas’ number two, Saleh al-Arouri, who was killed in a surgical attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

The absence or delay in response indicates Hezbollah’s and its Iranian sponsor’s desire not to escalate tensions on the Lebanese front.

Last week, a Hamas delegation, including Taher al-Nounoun, advisor of Hamas’ politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh, arrived in Beirut to discuss with Hezbollah the conditions for negotiations on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

According to leaks from the meeting, Hezbollah advised Hamas to take whatever actions it deemed appropriate. The fact that this information was leaked suggests that Hezbollah is not seeking to impose its decisions on Hamas.

The party, however, continues to express its opinions, engages in discussions, and makes observations, such as proposing the replacement of a government of technocrats with a government of national unity that would safeguard the rights of Hamas.

Similarly, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah met with Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Nakhaleh on Monday, according to a party press release.

The two leaders discussed the situation in Gaza and the occupied West Bank “in terms of the terrain, inhabitants, and politics,” the statement said. They also discussed “support for the axis of resistance on the various fronts,” namely Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, as well as “possible developments on the ground and political contacts.”

The French proposal

Press reports suggest that the French proposal presented in Lebanon by French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné has not been well received.

According to reports, both Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati felt that the proposals were too much in favor of Israel.

Berri expressed certain comments on the proposal but maintained a positive attitude, particularly as it is based on the 1996 Naqoura agreement and Security Council resolution 1701.

However, the real issue appears to lie elsewhere. Hezbollah and Berri’s Amal Movement, both supported by Iran, prefer to negotiate with the US rather than France. The criticism of the French plan and even its leaking to the media should be viewed in this context.

The fact that US envoy Amos Hochstein, responsible for negotiations on the American side, visited Israel last week but did not subsequently come to Lebanon, dismayed the Lebanese.

The American diplomat, however, now believes that detailed discussions and serious negotiations will not begin until a ceasefire is established in Gaza. Achieving such a ceasefire may not happen swiftly, especially with the Israeli offensive currently underway in the town of Rafah.

Despite Washington’s opposition, Israel is pressing on with its operations. The US may be allowing this to happen, content with verbal declarations in exchange for a commitment from Israel to avoid sparking a regional war.

Washington is aware of Iran’s efforts to de-escalate tensions, particularly in Lebanon, and is striving to convey a similar message to its allies.

Iran believes that a temporary agreement with the US is preferable to no agreement at all, especially with an eye on the American elections scheduled for November.

Therefore, it’s crucial to establish these agreements while observing the unfolding of the elections. If US President Joe Biden is re-elected, Iran will have set a clear direction for the agreements to be finalized with him.

Should Donald Trump win, these agreements could serve to alleviate tension and facilitate ongoing negotiations based on established parameters.

According to sources close to the Iranians, Tehran is aiming to manage any escalation by Israel or the US, particularly in the wake of the assassination of Hezbollah military commander Abu Bakr al-Saadi in Baghdad on Feb. 7.

Al-Saadi’s role leaned more toward Iran than Iraq; he oversaw training in Syria and supervised guided weapons and missiles in both Syria and Iraq. Consequently, he was involved in operations against American sites and interests.

It appears that the Americans and Israelis have been targeting the network of Iranian activities in Syria and Iraq. This follows the assassinations of Razi Mousavi, Iran’s logistics manager in Lebanon and Syria, in December, followed by the assassination of Hajj Sadegh, head of security for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s al-Quds Force in Syria and Iraq, in January, and now al-Saadi.

These strikes aim to pressure Tehran into containing the situation rather than escalating it further.

In this context, Amir-Abdollahian’s visit to Beirut served several objectives, one of which was to reaffirm Iran’s influence and role in the region.

The visit coincided with that of the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council to Baghdad, where he emphasized the importance of de-escalation, avoiding embarrassment to the Iraqi government, and continuing negotiations with Washington regarding the American withdrawal from Iraq.

These events are also connected to the ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Oman on various issues, including the ceasefire in Gaza and the future of conflict zones in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.

Iran aims to secure the withdrawal of the US from Syria and Iraq as military forces, rather than political entities, and to achieve a comprehensive settlement in the region, including Lebanon.

The desired result would involve American acknowledgment of Iran’s role in the region.

Amir-Abdollahian also emphasized the importance of successfully concluding the presidential election in Lebanon, noting that Hezbollah still holds significant influence in this matter. Iran is endeavoring to facilitate communication between Hezbollah and the Saudis, similar to the dialogue that has taken place between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. However, Riyadh has not yet consented to such talks.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.