Presidential election, south Lebanon: Behind the (diplomatic) scenes

Lebanon’s political landscape seems to be presently governed by intense diplomatic activity between two committees.

There is the quintet that is responsible for setting up a process to unblock the political deadlines, starting with the election of a president, followed by the formation of a cabinet and then the implementation of reforms.

There is another committee that is currently being formed between the countries concerned by the situation in south Lebanon, and it will be fixated on bringing about a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, with the aim of restoring stability at the border.

In this context, the meeting that the quintet ambassadors (US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt) held last week at the residence of the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, aimed to define the common denominators with the vision to move forward.

It was against the background that they met on Tuesday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, whom they kept informed of the discussions underway and the formulas proposed.

“The position is unified, and the meeting was helpful and promising,” said Berri in a press release issued at the end of his meeting with Lisa Johnson, Hervé Magro, Waleed Bukhari, Saud bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani and Alaa Moussa, respectively the ambassadors of the five aforementioned countries to Beirut.

The same was true of the French, US and Egyptian diplomats, who all insisted on the quintet’s unity and announced a forthcoming visit to Lebanese officials.

But what does this unified position consist of, clearly aimed at turning the page on the differences of opinion that were leaked and sometimes exaggerated in some media outlets?

According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, in addition to the fact that none of its members speaks on behalf of the group without prior agreement with their colleagues, the quintet has defined the course of action to be taken regarding the presidential election, i.e. not to go into names and details and to insist instead on the profile and characteristics of the future president.

“These characteristics should then be discussed by the Lebanese parliamentary blocs, through bilateral or trilateral meetings within parliament,” an Arab diplomatic source told our newspaper.

“The quintet will commit to respecting any agreement between the Lebanese based on these characteristics: A profile that would not constitute a victory of one camp over another, that would commit to respecting the Taif Agreement and the National Pact, that would work to implement reforms and an economic recovery plan and that would work to re-establish good relations between Lebanon and the Arab countries,” the source said.

Then, the quintet will hold another meeting at the representatives’ level (not that of ambassadors) of the concerned countries. “A proposal to hold this meeting in Beirut, and more precisely in Parliament, is on the table, as the matter is Lebanese,” the Arab diplomatic source said, adding that the date has not yet been set.

A committee and surveillance towers

In parallel with the quintet’s work on the presidential dossier, diplomatic efforts have been ongoing to find a lasting solution to the situation in southern Lebanon.

While there were differences within the Group of Five on the need to separate the political aspect of the Lebanese crisis from its military aspect, which is intrinsically linked to the Israel-Hamas war, the watchword now seems to move in this direction.

L’Orient-Le Jour learned in this context that there is talk of forming a quadripartite committee, to reach an agreement to restore stability and supervise the implementation of Resolution 1701, which put an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war in July 2006. In short, everything that comes under these key files would be subject to international sponsorship.

The main debate at this stage focuses on how to secure a long-term agreement to promote stability and calm on the border. According to a Western diplomatic source, US envoy Amos Hochstein could provide some answers during a forthcoming visit to Beirut.

Hochstein had previously visited Paris to discuss the dossier. “Hochstein was clear in his vision to stabilize the region and put an end to tensions. The French presented him with a proposal for the formation of a quadripartite committee consisting of the US, France, Israel and Lebanon to negotiate the resolution of disputes, based on the April 1996 [ceasefire] agreement following Israel’s Operation Grapes of Wrath,” said the source.

At the time, the committee was made up of five countries, with Syria participating alongside the states mentioned.

However, in the new proposal, Damascus is naturally excluded, while there is a possibility that an Arab country could join the initial four countries. The same source also said that Hochstein has asked the French to work on a plan or written document detailing this proposal for discussion, which the French are currently working on.

Among the ideas put forward, it was suggested that the international committee establishes two offices, one in Sour (in the south) and another in Nahariya (in northern Israel), to monitor the implementation of the agreement, which would involve a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli army. Thereafter, negotiations under the aegis of the United Nations and the supervision of these countries should continue with the aim to finalize the land border demarcation process.

“This process will take a long time,” said the Western diplomatic source. “But the important thing is to cease fire and start the talks that Amos Hochstein will conduct with Lebanon with a view to settling the points still disputed.”

According to information gathered from corroborating sources, a British and a French military delegation each visited Israel twice to discuss how to implement Resolution 1701 and avoid escalation.

Among the ideas put forward, according to the sources, was not to tackle the border demarcation at present, but to find the mechanisms needed to ensure stability.

“In this context, a British proposal emerged. It consists of building surveillance towers along the southern border (on the Lebanese side) similar to the British towers built in 2014 along Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria,” said an Arab diplomatic source.

These towers were built to monitor the border as part of the battle against the Islamic State organization so as to prevent its fighters from infiltrating Lebanese territory.

“Britain proposed that Qatar participate in the surveillance mechanism after the towers were built, an idea that Doha welcomed,” the source added.

However, Qatar reportedly set one condition: Holding the presidential elections beforehand as part of an overall compromise, so that the Lebanese authorities can follow through the border agreements when the time comes.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.