Fearing escalation in the Red Sea, Beijing shows neutrality

Nearly a month ago, after Washington announced the creation of an international coalition to protect ships in the Red Sea from Yemen’s Houthi attacks, US officials reportedly courted China to take part in this mission, anonymous US officials said, according to several media outlets.

Beijing did not respond to this request. Around 20 countries are now taking part in Operation Prosperity Guardian. On the evening of Jan. 11, the United States and the United Kingdom carried out strikes against dozens of Houthi targets in Yemen.

As recently as Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated “grave concern over the rising tensions in the Red Sea, and called for an end to the harassment of civilian ships,” which has severely disrupted global maritime trade and led to higher costs, China’s state news agency Xinhua reported.

While Beijing tries to act as neutral arbitrator in the Israel-Hamas war, could the escalation of violence between Washington and “resistance action” lead China to take a more proactive role to restore calm in the Red Sea?

No US alignment

Less than a week ago, China did not veto the US resolution, which the UN Security Council approved, condemning the Houthi attacks “in the strongest terms” and “noting the right of member states” to defend their ships from such attacks under international law.

Faced with the new, longer and more costly route going around Africa, for commercial ships that normally transit the Red Sea from Asia to Europe, Beijing risks losing out big time.

On the contrary, some observers suggest that this destabilization will encourage more and more traders to use the rail networks, thereby promoting China’s “Belt and Road Initiative.”

However, the Asian giant imports almost half of its crude oil from the Middle East, while exporting goods and merchandise to the European Union. In recent years, it has stepped up its investment and trade activities along the Suez Canal, through which a large proportion of its goods to the West are shipped.

“China has been consistently critical of the Houthi attacks in Yemen, both because it threatens their commercial interests directly and because it wants to avoid a wider escalation of the war,” said William Figueroa, assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.

There is no question that Beijing aligns itself with the Americans. While China and the United States are united in their desire to put an end to the rebel group’s attacks, joining the US-led coalition would be seen by Beijing as a humiliation in the face of its strategic rival.

However, China is keen to establish itself as the leader of the global South,, and to align itself with its positioning and that of the Arab world, where the Americans are isolated.

China also links the lack of stability in the Red Sea to the Israel-Hamas war. “It [China] believes that it is not fair to treat the escalation in these waters as a separate or isolated crisis and that the two situations are intertwined,” said Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the London-based Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program.

“The country believes that if the US uses its broad influence over Israel to achieve a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the crisis in the Red Sea could also come to an end,” he added.

Regional escalation

While China may not be able to persuade Washington to do so, US officials aware of Beijing’s decisive role with Tehran — dependent on its top trading partner — recently urged it to use its influence on Iran to prevent the conflict from spreading, Reuters reported.

Although the Yemeni rebel group has a degree of autonomy from its Iranian sponsor, the Islamic Republic has been providing it with financial and strategic assistance for years.

At the end of December 2023, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said that Tehran was “deeply involved in planning” the recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

At least five ships that recently transited the Red Sea signaled “an all Chinese crew” in their automatic identification system, which would normally contain their destination in order to avoid being attacked by the Houthis, Bloomberg reported.

“China has certainly made it clear to Iran and the Houthis that it wants the attacks to stop, although it has no real influence on Tehran either, which does not have the capacity or the motivation to completely curb the Houthis,” said Figueroa. “But it is possible that Tehran is even more afraid of a regional escalation caused by military intervention.”

Faced with the threat of a conflagration, China is stepping up its diplomatic efforts, having recently intensified its relations with the Middle East. In particular, Beijing can pride itself on having mediated the agreement to normalize relations between its ally Iran — with which its anti-American interests converge — and Saudi Arabia in March.

“This agreement, considered to be the foundation of China’s diplomatic, political and security influence in the region, would be threatened if the Houthis start attacking Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and if the peace talks under way in Yemen fail, because tensions between Riyadh and Tehran would resume by default,” said Aboudouh.

Neutral arbitrator

This prospect puts China in a delicate position. “The country wants to avoid being linked, even tangibly, to a destabilizing force, given the links between the Houthi movement and Iran,” said Figueroa. “Beijing has been careful to avoid any direct relationship with the group, even going so far as to cancel a potential oil deal between the Chinese company Anton Oil Service and the Houthi-backed government last year,” added Figueroa.

While there has so far been no real threat to the safety of Chinese ships, the country seems content with adopting a position of neutrality for the time being, while taking advantage of anti-American sentiment in the Middle East.

Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Beijing returned to its official position of neutral arbiter. Although it has adopted a pro-Palestinian rhetoric, on Oct.9, 2023, the country condemned “acts that harm civilians” in both Israel and Palestine, while offering to mediate in this file.

In Egypt, which the Chinese foreign minister visited on Sunday as part of a tour that is due to continue in Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire, Wang Yi called for a broader and more deterrent Israeli-Palestinian peace conference, as well as the establishment of a timetable for the implementation of a two-state solution.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translated by Joelle El Khoury.