Plans for post-war Gaza: the challenge of reforming the Palestinian Authority

After taking a back seat for several years, the Palestinian Authority has come under the spotlight over the past three months.

Selected by Washington to administer a post-Hamas Gaza Strip, the government entity, which exercises limited power in some parts of the West Bank, is seen by the Biden administration as the best option for a unified Palestinian government that includes the war-ravaged enclave and the occupied territory.

As recently as Wednesday, during his Middle East tour, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken encouraged “administrative reforms” in Ramallah, in line with the US’ desire for a “reformed Palestinian Authority.”

After meeting Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, Blinken headed to Bahrain, where he announced that Abbas agreed “to move forward and engage in some of these efforts” and that he was willing to “reform” the West Bank government, which has been plagued by corruption, authoritarianism and inaction.

Parallel bureaucracies

The PA has theoretically lacked presence in Gaza since it was driven out in 2007, after having administered the enclave following the Oslo Accords (1993) and exercising full control since the last Israeli settlers had been evacuated in 2005.

Fatah lost to Hamas in the 2006 legislative elections and could not accept its defeat.

Fighting erupted between the two factions and Hamas took de facto control of the Gaza Strip, while the PA consolidated its power in the West Bank, formalizing the political rupture. Practically, however, the PA continued to play a role in Gaza.

In an interview with Egyptian television channel ON in December, Abbas stated that Ramallah spends $140 million per month to pay its civil servants and services in the enclave. “We don’t need to return to Gaza, we’re already there,” said the PA leader.

A European diplomatic source who declined to be named said the PA pays salaries to nearly 40,000 civil servants in Gaza, particularly in the health and education sectors.

“The PA-Hamas split created parallel bureaucracies,” said Omar Rahman, an analyst with the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs. “Civil servants who were employed by the PA before 2007 have continued to receive their salaries from Ramallah.”

This funding comes from the funds that Israel pays monthly to the PA after levying customs duties and other taxes on Palestinian imports and exports, but of which larger and larger shares are constantly withheld by Israel under the pretext that the funds could flow to Hamas.

Many of the PA’s Gaza employees “are effectively unemployed,” since Ramallah “urged Fatah members to stay at home in protest after the Islamist movement’s coup,” said Tahani Mustafa, Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group. “Others have since resumed their activities, while some joined the ‘resistance’,” she continued.

Israel’s refusal

However, there are several obstacles to the PA’s return to Gaza. Since Washington took up the option, Abbas has insisted that such a scenario could only occur after the departure of Israeli troops, and as part of a diplomatic plan for a two-state solution.

If these conditions are not met, “the PA will simply be stuck as a subcontractor of the Israeli occupation structure, as is the case in the West Bank,” said Rahman.

But these demands oppose the will of Israel, which supported and strengthened Hamas in recent years to undermine power in Ramallah and the path towards a Palestinian state.

More than three months have passed since Hamas’ attack on Israel, and Benjamin Netanyahu is playing for time. He is postponing the moment of settling post-war accounts and carefully avoiding discussion on “the day after” in Gaza.

Until now, Netanyahu has officially rejected any role for the PA in Gaza, much to the exasperation of Washington.

On Sunday, Axios quoted four US officials saying US President Joe Biden is increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s refusal to comply with most of the US administration’s war-related demands, including the US plan for a “reformed PA” with a role in the post-Hamas Gaza Strip.

According to some of these sources, the White House also felt that Netanyahu’s refusal to release Palestinian tax revenues is hampering US efforts to promote reforms within the PA.

Meanwhile, Abbas is said to have expressed to Blinken his readiness to form a new government at Washington’s request, but that the funds withheld by Tel Aviv were preventing it from functioning properly.

These limitations are compounded by the reality on the ground. Disowned for several years by the Palestinians of the West Bank, authorities in Ramallah are said to be greeted with the same mistrust by the population in Gaza. This is added to the rise in popularity that Hamas seems to have enjoyed since the war in the enclave, especially in the West Bank.

According to a poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) taken between Nov. 22 and Dec. 2, 42 percent of Gazans support Hamas, compared with 38 percent at the start of the war. In the West Bank, 44 percent of Palestinians say they support the Islamist movement, compared with 12 percent in September.

These figures contrast with those showcasing attitudes towards Abbas: some 88 percent of residents in the Gaza Strip and the Occupied Territory want him to resign.

“The PA needs time to develop good relations with the local population in the face of the level of rejection that could pour down on it,” said Mustafa. “It is trying to find a place that can guarantee its survival and test the waters to assert its relevance in a way that does not compromise its legitimacy.”

To quell this challenge, some prominent Palestinian figures recently suggested that Hamas should become part of a new Palestinian governance under the PA umbrella.

“There is some confusion among the statements made by PA and Fatah officials,” noted Abdalhadi Alijla, a Palestinian social and political researcher. “Some of them said that Hamas must be integrated, but neither the PA nor Fatah has a political agenda so far, which is causing even more confusion.”

This option would certainly be met with the disapproval of Washington, although its own vision of a “reformed PA” remains vague.

According to US officials quoted by Axios in mid-December, the Biden administration would like Abbas to undertake major overhaul reforms by injecting “new blood” into the leadership in Ramallah, where the 87-year-old has constantly postponed legislative elections, fearing they would benefit dissident lists in favor of Hamas.

“When the Americans talk about a reformed PA, they’re not really talking about elections, because elections can produce the same results as in 2006,” said Mustafa. “They are thinking more about the image of the PA to give the impression that these are functional institutions and that the authority is no longer concentrated in the hands of one man and a few advisers.”

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.