Why Israel doesn’t target Hamas leaders in Qatar, Turkey

“The government has set us the objective, in the street, of eliminating Hamas. This is our Munich. We'll do it everywhere, in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Turkey, Qatar. It will take a few years, but we'll be there to do it.” Broadcast in a recording on Israeli public broadcaster Kan in early December, these threats were made by the head of Shin Bet, Israel's domestic intelligence service Ronen Bar, and were carried out for the first time outside Palestinian territory since the start of the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7.

On Tuesday evening, the Islamist movement’s number two and co-founder of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in an Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, where he had set up his headquarters. Six other people, including two Hamas members, perished in the attack.

The assassination of a high-ranking official on Oct. 7, in the heart of Hezbollah's stronghold, is a double blow for Israel. It enables it both to keep its promise to its population to liquidate the leaders of Hamas, and to test the red lines of Hezbollah, with which it has been waging a medium-intensity war on Lebanon's southern border for the past three months.

“It's a clear message of deterrence to Hezbollah, to let them know that Israel will not allow them to open a second front,” explained Hasni Abidi, Director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva.

Israel struck in Lebanon, because the country is home to Hamas's military leadership and command center. Qatar and Turkey instead hosted the leaders of its political bureau. It would have been extremely complicated politically for Israel to attack Hamas in Qatar or Turkey, two countries whose security is locked down by the government, which are protected by defense agreements with the USA and NATO, and with which Israel maintains pragmatic relations.

“The losses in the event of an attack on Qatar or Turkey would be far more disastrous for Israel than the benefits it would derive,” continued Abidi.

Mediator

It's hard to imagine an Israeli strike on Qatari territory, home to the American Centcom base from which the USA's biggest military operations in the region are launched. In addition to this life insurance policy, in 2022, Doha obtained the status of non-member ally of NATO, which grants it exemptions from US arms export laws, as well as preferential access to US military equipment and technologies. The two benefits are available to member states of the Atlantic Alliance.

In addition, the Israelis need Qatar to free the 129 hostages still held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Alongside Egypt and the US, Doha has already played a crucial role in the release of 110 captives, 80 of them as part of the first truce with Israel, which began on Nov. 24. “In exchange, the Qataris asked Washington for guarantees to keep Hamas members safe on its territory,” said Abidi.

For all those reasons, an Israeli strike on Qatar would call into question the validity of the American security umbrella not only for Doha, but also for the other Gulf states. “It would lead them to turn more to other powers, as they consider that Washington has failed to protect them from Israel, despite being one of its most important allies,” added Abidi.

The confidence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has already been shaken by Washington not responding to attacks by Yemeni Houthi rebels and Iran against oil installations on their territory, in 2019 and 2022 respectively.

An Israeli attack on the gas emirate will remain unacceptable to the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. “Israel, which is counting on future normalization with Saudi Arabia, will have to think twice before attacking Qatar,” warned Abidi.

Pro-Palestinian stance

As far as Turkey is concerned, relations with Israel, which had returned to normal in 2022, became strained again after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described Hamas at the end of October as “a group of liberators protecting their land.”

In the wake of this statement, Israel recalled its ambassador to Ankara. Turkey recalled its ambassador to Tel Aviv in early November in response to Israel's refusal to accept a ceasefire in Gaza.

However, exchanges continue behind the scenes, particularly on the economic front, indicating that Erdogan has cut ties with Benjamin Netanyahu's government, more so than Israel per se.

“Turkish ports are still used by the Israelis for commercial purposes,” stressed Abidi. “The Israelis really could have taken retaliatory measures, but they didn't,” he added.

Not content with strongly reaffirming his pro-Palestinian stance, the Turkish president will welcome his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raissi to Ankara on Jan. 4 to discuss Gaza, Syria and other regional issues. The meeting was originally scheduled for last November, but was cancelled at the last minute.

Erdogan was also one of the first leaders to react to the double explosion that killed dozens of people in the Iranian city Kerman on Wednesday, as crowds gathered to commemorate the fourth anniversary of military leader Kassem Soleimani’s assassination. The Turkish head of state condemned on X (formerly Twitter) the “terrorist” attack, expressing his “condolences to the friendly and brotherly Iranian people.”

Political obstacles aside, an Israeli strike on Turkish soil remains difficult to envisage for security reasons. As a member of NATO, Turkey could invoke Article 5, calling on Alliance members to react to such an assault on its territory, a scenario that should contain any hint of an Israeli attack.

On Tuesday, Ankara announced the arrest of 34 suspects as part of an investigation into an alleged Mossad plot targeting foreigners in Turkey. No further details have been released, but Israeli foreign intelligence has been involved in previous investigations into attempted kidnappings of Palestinians living in Turkey.

Targeted assassinations in other countries where Iranian proxies are present are an integral part of Israel's military strategy. Teheran has accused Tel Aviv of targeting two Iranian generals affiliated with pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and Syria over the past two weeks. Israel has also carried out notable assassinations, including that of eminent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Iran and Revolutionary Guard commander Colonel Sayad Khodayee in Syria. For its part, Iran executed three men and a woman in the province of West Azerbaijan last Friday, accusing them of "collaboration with the Zionist regime,” for alleged links with Mossad.

This article was originally published in L'Orient-Le Jour.