Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has been in power since 2013. (Credit: Khaled Desouki/AFP Archives)
Benjamin Netanyahu seems set on expelling Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. During a closed-door Likud party meeting on Monday, Netanyahu said he was working to find countries willing to “absorb” Gazans, Israel Hayom reported.
“Our problem is to know which countries are ready to absorb them, and we are working on that,” he said at the meeting that focused on post-war prospects.
In the absence of a concrete plan, and fearing the mass displacement of Gaza’s population to Sinai — a scenario that Israeli officials have repeatedly mentioned — Egypt is positioned to calm the hostilities and try to regain its role as a traditional mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Amid the war the destruction, Cairo presented to Israel, Hamas, the US and European governments, a multi-phase plan in s last week, the Associated Press reported. The war has already destroyed half of the Gaza Strip and killed more than 21,110 people, according to Hamas.
Hostages
The first part of Egypt’s proposal suggests another pause and the release of 40 to 50 Israeli Hamas-held hostages, in exchange for 120 to 150 Palestinian prisoners.
In the second phase of the proposal, the pause would lead to the formation of a transitional government for Gaza and the West Bank, composed of technocrats from the various Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah.
The third phase involves an overall ceasefire, the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, including soldiers, in exchange for prisoners affiliated with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, including those arrested after Oct. 7.
Israel would then withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and allow the return of Gazans who were displaced from the north of the enclave.
At the end of November, Cairo, alongside Qatar and the US, helped negotiate the release of 50 Israeli hostages and 150 Palestinian prisoners.
While Cairo’s plan would appeal to Israel, because it enables the release of hostages, there is little to no chance that Tel Aviv would accept a political formation including members of Hamas.
While the Islamist movement is in favor of a ceasefire, it is highly unlikely that is will agree to give up its power.
While a long-term solution seems impossible for the time being, Egypt’s initiative would aim to ease the conflict, at least temporarily.
While Egypt reiterated its total rejection of any forced displacement of Gazans, in recent months it has stepped up contacts with Iran, a supporter of Hamas and leader of the “resistance axis.”
Before Oct. 7, the two countries had launched an — unsuccessful — process negotiated by Oman, aimed at normalizing relations between the two regional powers after decades of tension. They were due to exchange ambassadors by the end of the year, reported The National at the end of May.
Cairo and Tehran have engaged in a series of indirect talks in recent months. Given the situation in Gaza, a meeting between the Egyptian and Iranian presidents also took place on the sidelines of the Arab and Islamic summit in Riyadh in November.
In September, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry met with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
On Monday, for the second time since the start of the conflict, Shoukry spoke on the phone with Amirabdollahian, intending to continue efforts to establish a comprehensive ceasefire, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry stated.“This call is part of a long process of reconciliation between Egypt and Iran that began in the spring of 2023,” said Nael Shama, a political specialist focusing on Middle East affairs.
Cairo hopes to reap the rewards of this détente to get Hamas on board with its plan, while President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has already been pursuing a policy of appeasement towards Hamas for several years, to boost security on the Egyptian-Gaza border.
Red Sea
A rapprochement with Iran would also enable Cairo to try to stop Houthis attacks in the Red Sea. A drop in tourism and Suez Canal revenues has been observed in Egypt due to strikes targeting ships around the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The Egyptian air defense shot down a drone, probably sent by the Yemeni rebels, on Tuesday near the seaside resort town of Dahab, marking the second incident of its kind in a month.
“This topic was undoubtedly at the heart of the call between Shoukry and Amirabdollahian, because Egypt knows that the Iranians are taking advantage of the Houthis’ attacks [to increase the pressure on Israel and the United States], so they are trying to use their newly-warmed connection with Iran to stop the attacks on ships, at least on those heading to the Suez Canal,” Shama said.
Within the same spirit of internal appeasement, Egyptian authorities denied that Israel carried out a ground operation against Gaza from the Kerem Shalom border crossing by entering the Philadelphia corridor (a strip of land on the border that must remain demilitarized under the Camp David agreements) on Saturday.
“The news generated negative reactions on social media, as well as among some Egyptian journalists and intellectuals,” said Shama. “The prospect of Israel carrying out operations on the border or on Egyptian territory is extremely damaging to the government’s image.”
This anger, coupled with pro-Palestinian pressure, is perceived as a potential threat by a state obsessed with stability and security, and for which it is, therefore, crucial to separate the regional context from the national.
Since Sisi took power in 2013, Egypt has destroyed 1,900 tunnels in Gaza, including in the buffer zone bordered by the corridor, according to Israel Hayom.
While this figure is impossible to verify, media sources like AL Jazeera, the New York Times and Middle East Monitor have previously made mention of Egypt’s penchant for destroying and flooding such tunnels —something the Egyptian government has done in the past to offset the Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas is an offshoot.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.