A torn-up sign for former Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki's coalition in the municipal elections lies on a grass lawn in Baghdad on Dec. 13, 2023 ahead of the vote on Dec. 18, the first in a decade. (Credit Ahmad al-Rubaye/AFP)
Iraqi voters go to the polls Monday to select members of the powerful provincial councils, in the first election of its kind in a decade.
Experts warn that, in an oil-rich country riven by graft, the councils will only serve to entrench Iraq's ruling elite, especially powerful pro-Iran groups.
Part of the political system set up after the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, the councils wield important powers including selecting governors and allocating budgets for health, transport and education.
But with the upcoming vote, "numerous political factions are hoping to take root within the system...to exploit the capabilities of the state for their benefit," said Iraqi political analyst Ali al-Baidar.
Critics have labeled the councils nests of corruption and clientelism.
They were abolished in 2019 to placate massive anti-government protests, but Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government has since moved to re-establish them.
In Baghdad and other big cities, election placards and banners have lined the streets, but many have been ripped up or pulled down in a reflection of widespread disillusionment with politics.
The elections are being boycotted by the movement of Moqtada Sadr, a highly influential Shiite cleric and political kingmaker, clearing the way for his rivals, the ruling Coordination Framework coalition, to secure yet another lever of power.
The Tehran-aligned bloc, which already dominates Iraq's parliament, brings together Shiite Islamist parties with factions of the Hashed al-Shaabi, a network of former paramilitary units integrated into the regular army.
Political 'stepping stone'
The local polls "can be a stepping stone to parliament," Baidar told AFP, with national elections due in 2025.
"The provincial councils are crucial for providing public services to citizens," said Hadi al-Ameri, the leader of the influential Shiite Badr organization, in a recent statement.
Bahaa al-Nuri, a lawmaker from the same political camp, told AFP that councils played an important supervisory role by "monitoring the work of governors, deciding on local projects and holding administration directors accountable".
The provincial elections will be the first since 2013, despite being mandated every four years.
Under Iraq's federal system, only 15 of the 18 provinces will vote. The three Kurdish provinces operate under a separate autonomous system.
Around 17 million people are eligible to vote in the 7,166 polling stations.
On the various ballots will be 6,000 candidates vying for just 285 seats nationwide. Baghdad province will elect 49, while Basra province 22.
Among the hopefuls, 1,600 are female, thanks to a quota that reserves 25 percent of candidatures for women.
Ten seats are reserved for Iraq's ethnic and religious minorities, namely Christians, Yazidis and Sabians.
'Personal interest'
"The expectation is that the largest parties and coalitions will retain primacy," said Sajad Jiyad, an analyst at the IRIS think tank at the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani in a blog post.
"Of the 15 provincial councils available, the nine southern provinces and Baghdad are very likely to be dominated by parties in the (Coordination Framework) or those allied with it," he added.
In the Sunni provinces, the Taqadum or Progress party could see its performance suffer after the judiciary removed its leader, Mohamed al-Halbussi, as speaker of Iraq's parliament.
Jiyad said the elections could "aggravate ethno-sectarian tensions if the results are challenged," in particular in Kirkuk, a northern province rich in oil "with a history of tensions between its Arab, Kurdish, and Turkmen communities."
He said he expected a turnout of around 25 percent "in terms of all eligible voters."
Rashad, a 45-year-old merchant in Baghdad who preferred to only give his first name for safety reasons, said he would not be participating in the upcoming elections.
"Vote? What for?," he told AFP. "The candidates come from the same parties that have already won in the past. All they seek is their personal interest, they don't care about the people."
Among the small opposition parties that emerged from the 2019 protests, some will boycott the elections while others are persevering in an attempt to build a popular base.
"The political class that emerged after 2003 has failed in the administration of this country," said Khaled Walid, a spokesman for Nazil Akhod Haki, one of the parties to emerge from the protests.
Rejecting the widespread cynicism, he pledged his party would deliver if elected: "We promise the public to exercise real control within the councils, to stop the waste of public funds."
Iraqi voters go to the polls Monday to select members of the powerful provincial councils, in the first election of its kind in a decade.
Experts warn that, in an oil-rich country riven by graft, the councils will only serve to entrench Iraq's ruling elite, especially powerful pro-Iran groups.
Part of the political system set up...