Army Commander-in-Chief Joseph Aoun (left) and outgoing Prime Minister Najib Mikati (center), in Rachaya, Nov. 22, 2023. (Credit: Presidency of the Council via X)
A few hours after the announcement that a parliamentary session would take place Thursday to possibly extend the term of Army Chief Joseph Aoun, the chance that the matter will be referred to the cabinet has resurfaced.
Hence, rather than passing a law in Parliament, one of the scenarios being discussed behind the scenes is to keep Gen. Aoun in his position through a cabinet decicion at the end of the week.
This is a possibility that caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has always wanted to avoid, as he would rather pass the quid to his main ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
But while Berri seemed about to bite the bullet, as he always considered this a matter falling within the cabinet’s powers, Mikati showed a willingness to bring his team together to look into the matter and possibly settle the matter.
How can this U-turn be explained? One would have to look to Hezbollah, which, as it has become clear, does not want to make an enemy of its Christian ally Gebran Bassil, who has been campaigning to sideline Gen. Aoun.
Here’s the concocted scenario that is circulating behind the scenes: the parliamentary session would extend beyond Thursday and stumble long before it gets to the extension issue. This is where Mikati would come in and convene the ministers, in principle on Friday — the official agenda was sent to cabinet members on Tuesday evening.
The caretaker cabinet would adopt a decision delaying Joseph Aoun’s retirement by six months. Then it would be the Free Patriotic Movement’s turn to file a challenge with the State Shura Council — an approach that may be more guaranteed than filing a challenge with the Constitutional Council to invalidate a law passed by the Parliament.
This way would allow Mikati and Berri — and behind them Hezbollah — to wash their hands of the consequences of the matter, and would not upset Bkirki and the majority of the Christians who have been lobbying to keep Gen. Aoun in office.
It was independent Zahle MP Michel Daher who unveiled the plan and sounded the alarm on Monday evening. “Some political parties want the extension of Joseph Aoun’s term of office to be raised during a cabinet meeting to keep the door open to a challenge for invalidation submitted with to the State Shura Council,” he wrote on his X account, accusing the authors of this proposal of failing to fulfill their responsibilities.
“The players in question should clearly state their position on this issue instead of blowing hot and cold,” he added.
Several observers believe that Daher aimed this arrow at Hezbollah, which has been accused by its critics of being unwilling to extend Gen. Aoun’s term of office and of hiding behind the FPM leader’s categorical rejection.
MP Naji Hayek, FPM vice president for foreign affairs, refused to comment on these accusations. He said, “deferring [the matter] to the cabinet implies that they [the actors within the government] do not want to keep Joseph Aoun at the army’s command, because we are going to win the battle at the State Shura Council.”
Former Justice Minister Salim Jreissati told L’Orient-Le Jour that the challenge to overturn a potential cabinet decision is ready.
“The [caretaker] defense minister can refer the matter to the State Shura Council, arguing that by taking such a decision, the cabinet has exceeded its powers,” said Jreissati, about the fact that, in normal circumstances, the army chief’s term of office can be extended by a cabinet decision upon the proposal of the defense minister.
This is certainly not the case with Lebanon’s caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Slim, whose relations with Gen. Aoun are almost ruptured, and who continues to abide by the FPM decision to shun any cabinet meeting held during a presidential vacancy.
However, several constitutional experts diminished the FPM’s chances of winning its case. In their view, only those directly affected by cabinet decisions can file a challenge with the State Shura Council. And that is not the case with Slim.
“They could find an Aounist officer aspiring to succeed Joseph Aoun,” said a former judge who requested anonymity.
War of statements between Mikati and the LF
The possibility of resorting to the State Shura Council raised concerns among the Lebanese Forces (LF), which are pressing for an extension of Aoun’s term of office. The party, which submitted a draft law to this end, has even broken with its principled stance of boycotting parliamentary legislative sessions during the presidential vacancy.
The LF believes that holding a cabinet meeting would aim to bury the extension of Aoun’s term of office, since the absence of the defense minister’s signature could lead to a challenge.
In a press release, the LF said it was “surprised” to see Mikati convene a cabinet meeting dedicated to an issue he has long postponed, and accused him of dragging the military institution and Lebanon into dangerous chaos.
Mikati was quick to reply. In a press release, he stressed that if it were to meet, the cabinet would extend the army chief’s term of office for six months, whereas the LF is suggesting a one-year extension He stressed that the two options are not contradictory.
LF MP Ghassan Hasbani was amongst those who asked Mikati last month to delay Joseph Aoun’s retirement.
These arguments do not seem convincing to the LF. “We asked for an extension that complies with the laws in force. But the fact that he is prepared to convene the ministers the day after convening a parliament [session] shows a clear desire to block the way to any extension, whether through the cabinet or Parliament,” said the LF media department in another press release.
“Najib Mikati wants to hold a cabinet meeting. But we are not going to allow him to do that. We are therefore going to take part in Thursday’s parliamentary session to press for a law delaying the retirement of all army chiefs,” said LF spokesman Charles Jabbour.
In front of his visitors, Berri raised the issue of the troop’s future at the parliamentary session, said MP Camille Chamoun, who is close to the LF. Chamoun visited Ain al-Tineh on Tuesday along with MP Razi Al Hajj and Ashraf Rifi.
How will this perfectly Lebanese soap opera end? We will soon find out.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.