A child holds up a poster of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi in Cairo during the first day of voting for the presidential election. Dec.10, 2023. (Credit: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters)
The war in Gaza continues, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi has strategically positioned himself to capitalize on it.
Since Oct. 7, Sissi has assumed the role of a champion for the Palestinian cause, effectively quelling internal criticisms and solidifying his standing as a prominent global leader.
The presidential election, which began on Dec. 10 and concludes on Dec. 12, is likely to see Sisi re-elected for a third term. With no viable opposition candidates and the withdrawal of a significant rival, Ahmed al-Tantawii, the incumbent president faces minimal competition.
Despite the apparent lack of political challenges, concerns lingered for the president as indications of popular mobilization began surfacing ahead of the election.
Over the past few years, Egypt has grappled with mounting social discontent, fueled by the most severe economic crisis in its history. The population largely attributes the economic downturn to Sisi’s reform program.
The country has witnessed a persistent increase in inflation, further aggravated by a nearly 50-percent devaluation of the currency over the last 18 months. Additionally, foreign debt has surged more than threefold over the past decade, contributing to the economic challenges faced by the nation.
The Egyptian authorities took measures to expedite the voting process by several months, strategically avoiding potential unrest in response to an impending currency devaluation initially planned before the election scheduled for the coming spring.
Capitalizing on the conflict in Gaza, Sisi has effectively diverted attention away from these economic concerns, bolstered by his newfound role as the champion of the Palestinian cause.
“Egyptians are closely following the events in Gaza,” said political scientist and Middle East specialist Nael Shama. “The war served as a fortuitous distraction for the regime, diverting significant attention away from domestic issues amid the unfolding tragedy next door.”
National security
On Oct. 20, Sisi approved holding demonstrations in solidarity with Gaza, in a bid to assimilate them into a framework controlled by the regime.
Led by pro-government groups, these demonstrations prominently featured portraits of Sisi, reflecting his attempt to harness the collective anger of Egyptians.
Sisi has on several occasions protested against the forced displacement of Gazans to the Egyptian border province of Sinai. On Oct. 12, he described what was happening as “the liquidation of the Palestinian question.” Sisi, however, quickly returned to his repressive ways, arresting dozens of protesters.
On Oct. 20, some of the protesters flocked to the famous Tahrir Square after breaking through the police cordons, calling for Sisi’s departure, and for greater social justice and freedom.
The fact remains that in the eyes of a segment of the population, Sisi is the sole figure capable of ensuring the country’s stability. Sisi has control over the Rafah border crossing, the only entry point (among the three) in and out of Gaza that is not under the administration of the Israeli state.
Over the past two months, Sisi has opportunistically positioned himself as the guardian of Egypt’s national security. He talks about the potential threat of the country serving as a rear base for Hamas fighters, potentially leading to an open conflict with Israel if the border becomes porous.
Sisi, who took power in 2013 through a coup d’état, has built his political capital on promises to restore order in Sinai, an area plagued by instability.
Role as mediator
On the international stage, Sisi can also pride himself on having highlighted the importance of his country since the start of the war between Hamas and Israel. Egypt is the only country to share a common border with both Gaza and Israel.
Quoted in a White House press release on Oct. 29, is US President Joe Biden’s gratitude for Egypt’s leading role in facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid to the civilian population of Gaza. The press release came after a telephone conversation between the two presidents.
Biden has emphasized his commitment to preventing the conflict from spreading to neighboring countries and has indicated his intention to bolster regional alliances at the expense of the Tehran-led axis. In response, Cairo has taken steps to open its borders, offering refuge to hundreds of dual nationals and foreigners escaping the turmoil in Gaza.
In recent weeks, Egypt also resumed its traditional position as a key mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
On Nov. 28, the head of Egyptian Intelligence participated in a meeting in Doha with the heads of American and Israeli intelligence services and the Qatari Prime Minister. The meeting aimed to discuss the potential extension of a truce agreement between Hamas and Israel, which resulted in the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. This truce concluded two days later.
“The Qataris played an important role, but so did the Egyptians, both in delivering aid to Gaza and in freeing the hostages held by Hamas,” Shama said. “However, the role of Egypt as a mediator has its limitations, as Israel is currently more inclined toward eliminating Hamas rather than engaging in indirect dialogue with it.”
Human rights
Despite its alliance with Washington and partnership with Israel since signing the first Arab-Israeli peace treaty in 1979, Egypt has maintained dialogue with Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007. This dialogue persists despite differences with the Muslim Brotherhood, considered a nemesis by the Sissi regime. Cairo’s mediation efforts were instrumental in achieving a ceasefire in May 2021 following 11 days of war between Hamas and Israel.
However, this diplomatic role is becoming increasingly precarious for Egypt, as it strives to avoid once again assuming a direct role in the Palestinian enclave. Such involvement could jeopardize the security gains it has achieved in Sinai. In a show of support for Cairo, foreign aid is expected to see an uptick.
Sources cited by Bloomberg on Oct. 13 indicate that Egypt is engaged in discussions with the IMF to increase its rescue program to over $5 billion, surpassing the initially planned $3 billion, contingent on specified reforms.
“The European Union is also purportedly contemplating expediting a $10 billion investment package for Egypt, as reported by various media outlets,” said Shama. “The debate has shifted, we are now talking about geopolitics, not human rights.”
For years, the international community, including Washington, has criticized Cairo for its human rights violations, as tens of thousands of political prisoners languish in the country’s jails.
“Ultimately, Egypt will need to address the ongoing crisis in Gaza without yielding to Israeli demands for accepting an influx of Palestinians or succumbing to American requests for an Egyptian security role in the Gaza Strip post-war,” said researcher Imad K. Harb in an article published by the Arab Center in Washington.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.