In southern Lebanon, Israel negotiates UNSC Res. 1701 with fire

The streets of Aitaroun resemble those of Gaza. On Sunday, this town in southern Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil district was the target of intense Israeli bombardment that left an entire residential area smashed to smithereens. Shells also rained down on around 20 surrounding villages, injuring several people.

This is the highest level of escalation Lebanon has seen since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. Israel’s shelling of the south seems to be a warning to the Lebanese. But above all, this foretaste allows Tel Aviv to put pressure on Hezbollah.

Israel’s objective is a strict implementation — at least on the Lebanese side — of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which provides for the effective withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters from the border region. This is the only way Israel can allow its citizens to return safely to the northern towns that were evacuated after the Oct. 7 attack.

‘Harming the population to control Nasrallah’

For the past few weeks, Arab and Western envoys have conducted intensive mediation efforts in Beirut in an attempt to find agreement and prevent further escalation in South Lebanon.

In exchange for the security guarantees demanded by Israel — which is weary of the risk of infiltration into its territory — diplomats promise to resolve the 13 disputed points along the Blue Line, and even to secure foreign investment to help Lebanon emerge from its economic crisis.

However, Hezbollah has so far proved inflexible, and Israel seems willing to force its hand.

“We seem to be in the middle of negotiations,” said Michael Young, editor of Carnegie Middle East’s blog Diwan.

Israel attacked a Lebanese Army post twice this weekend in Wazzani. It also attacked a UN Interim Force (UNIFIL) unit in Abl al-Qameh.

These attacks could be Israel’s way of showing its dissatisfaction with these two actors, who are supposed to maintain stability in the region and keep armed militias at bay.

“The military institution does neither have a mandate from the cabinet nor the means to deploy on a larger scale at the border,” said a retired general on condition of anonymity. “What’s more, Resolution 1701 provides for the mobilization of several thousand men, who will then no longer be able to carry out their missions in other regions, particularly the porous border with Syria.”

But the other side is prepared to do anything to ensure that the UN resolution is strictly implemented as time runs out. “Press reports indicate that the US does not want the current war to drag on and is asking Israel to end its operation before the end of the year,” said Young.

Tel Aviv is therefore shifting up a gear and inaugurating a new phase in the conflict with Hezbollah at the same time.

“Israel is trying to show its thirst for blood and to depopulate the villages in the south, as is the case in its northern region, to put pressure on the resistance,” said Mohamad Atwi, a retired Lebanese army general reputedly close to Amal and Hezbollah.

“This is one of the reasons why the troops were targeted throughout last week — one soldier was killed and several others were wounded. These attacks are intended to sow internal division in Lebanon. Israel hopes that the anti-war will turn against Hezbollah and hold it accountable for the deaths and material damage,” Atwi added.

This type of pressure is reminiscent of the famous “Dahyeh doctrine,” named after Beirut’s southern suburb. This is the modus operandi that the Israeli army used in July 2006 in Lebanon, and now in Gaza.

In 2008, former Israeli Chief of Staff Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, a veteran of several wars in Lebanon and the current portfolio minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, said “we will wield disproportionate power against [the Lebanese] and cause immense damage and destruction. Harming the population is the only means of restraining [Hezbollah Secretary General] Hassan Nasrallah.”

Simultaneously, Israel is exerting maximum pressure on Hezbollah in Syria, where airstrikes against Iran-aligned militia-held positions are on the rise, and have killed five members militiamen in just a few days.

And what about Hezbollah?

Will this policy of maximum pressure force Hezbollah to make concessions? Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah stated Sunday that the airstrikes constituted a “new escalation” to which Hezbollah will retaliate with new types of attacks, whether “in the nature of the weapons [used] or the sites targeted.”

This language sounds sufficiently threatening enough to prevent Hezbollah from looking weak. It's also ambiguous enough to steer clear of a potentially destructive escalation.

On Monday the party did not announce any operations going beyond the rules of engagement, even though Israel’s airstrikes have gone deeper into Lebanese territory, hitting the Jezzine district, and killing the mukhtar of Taybeh, a border village in the Marjayoun district.

Despite Hezbollah’s restraint, Tel Aviv seems to be pushing to obtain the concessions it demands. This is what Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week when he asserted it will be “either through an international political settlement or through military action.”

Gallant’s predecessor Benny Gantz entered the fray on Monday. He said, “Israel wants to change the current situation on the border with Lebanon.”

Addressing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Gantz said, as reported by the Israeli media, “Lebanon’s government must be pressed to stop Hezbollah’s Iran-backed attacks and to keep it away from the border.”

Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said” Hezbollah understands well that if it dares, Beirut and Lebanon will be our next target and will be flattened.”

“By escalating their attacks, the Israelis also want to force Hezbollah to do the same, and so on until they can strike Beirut’s southern suburb without alienating the international community,” analyzed Gen. Atwi.

The Western powers, led by the US and France, oppose to extension of the conflict into Lebanon. The same goes for Iran. Everything suggests that the Islamic Republic wants to maintain its policy of minimum service to Hamas and avoid paying an exorbitant price in the name of “the unity of the fronts.”

Forced to pander to the interests of its sponsor, Hezbollah does not seem ready to break all barriers. “The escalation is taking place within the limits that do not expose Lebanon to too much of a danger,” said a source close to Hezbollah.

“The resistance is dealing the Israelis hard blows without breaking the rules of engagement,” Gen. Atwi concurred. “It will continue to do so,” he said.

This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.