Aerial view showing a forest fire raging at the Encontro das Aguas Park by the Sao Lourenco River in the Pantanal wetland, near Pocone, Mato Grosso State, Brazil, on Nov. 12, 2023. (Credit: Regerio Florentino/AFP)
For the first time on record, the global average temperature Friday was hotter by more than two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, according to Europe's Copernicus climate monitor, adding Saturday likely continued the unprecedented warming streak.
Months of extraordinary heat are expected to make 2023 the hottest year in history, with droughts, massive wildfires and fierce storms ravaging swathes of the planet.
According to new data, global temperatures on Nov. 17 were 2.07 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, the EU's Climate Change Service (C3S) announced.
"This was the first day when global temperature was more than 2 degrees Celsius above 1850-1900 levels," said C3S Deputy Head Samantha Burgess on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Preliminary data suggests the record continued into Saturday, with temperatures around 2.06 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, Copernicus said on X.
The climate monitor will confirm the figure by Tuesday.
The 2015 Paris Agreement enshrined the goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to aim for a safer 1.5 degrees.
If individual days go above 2 degrees that does not mean that the Paris threshold has been breached -- the deal instead refers to an average measured over decades.
Climate experts have urged the world to aim for the lower limit to avoid major climate impacts, such as heatwaves, super hurricanes and melting ice caps.
They defined warming as "the increase in the 30-year global average" relative to the average from 1850 to 1900.
The current climate is considered to have warmed by nearly 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to that reference period.
Warming limit 'getting closer'
The first day to exceed the 2 degree target is part of a series of records this year: October was the warmest ever recorded globally, as was every month since June, according to Copernicus, which said that 2023 would with "near certainty" surpass the hottest year on record set in 2016.
Beyond these official records, scientists say proxy data for the climate going back further — like tree rings or ice cores — suggests the temperatures seen this year could be unprecedented in human history, potentially the warmest in more than 100,000 years.
October was some 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than an estimate of that month's average for the pre-industrial era, Copernicus said earlier this month.
And global average temperatures since January have been the highest among records going back to 1940, the monitor added, registering 1.43 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The UN Environment Program's annual Emissions Gap report on Monday said from January this year to early October there have been 86 days recorded with temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
While that does not mean the Paris Agreement threshold has been breached, UNEP warned that the records "signal that we are getting closer."
Leaders meeting Nov. 30 to Dec. 12 in the United Arab Emirates for the COP28 conference will have to respond to a damning progress report on the world's Paris pledges after major scientific studies have made clear the world is far off track.
The conference is expected to draw up the first official assessment of the Paris Agreement and, if possible, corrective measures.
Months of extraordinary heat are expected to make 2023 the hottest year in history,...