Born in Gaza's Khan Yunis refugee camp, Mohammad Dahlan is now a businessman in the UAE with high-ranking contacts throughout the region. (Credit: AFP)
The war has persisted for over a month in Gaza and the idea of a political process still seems distant, but the names of potential candidates to take over the Palestinian leadership have begun to emerge.
Contenders include Marwan Barghouti — the “Palestinian Mandela” who has been imprisoned in Israel for over 20 years — as well as former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and Fatah’s ex-security chief Mohammad Dahlan. On paper, Dahlan’s profile meets all the requirements.
Born in Gaza’s Khan Younis refugee camp, Dahlan grew up alongside several current Hamas leaders. He spent most of the 1980s in Israeli prisons for being a member of Fatah, then became head of the Palestinian Authority’s security in Gaza.
A multifaceted man, Dahlan has made as many friends as he has enemies within the two major Palestinian political movements. Described as Israel-compatible after abandoning the armed struggle and supporting the two-state solution, Dahlan reassures both the United States and regional players who oppose the Muslim Brotherhood.
Driven out of Gaza in 2007 after fighting Hamas in the internal war that followed his election, Dahlan has since enjoyed a golden exile in the United Arab Emirates, where he has become Mohammad bin Zayed’s security adviser. This role turned him into a businessman with highly-ranked contacts across the region.
Dahlan has a Serbian passport and is suspected of having taken part in a shipment of Emirati arms from the Balkans to Marshal Haftar’s camp in Libya, according to an investigation by Le Monde.
“He is one of MBZ’s most trusted advisers, not only on Palestinian affairs but also on Sudan and other issues,” said Hasni Abidi, director of the Geneva-based Study and Research Center for the Arab and Mediterranean World. “MBZ won’t let him go,” Abidi added.
An Emirati representative in Gaza
The Emirati president could push Dahlan to take over the Palestinian leadership in Gaza, as the post-Hamas era takes shape. This may not be so simple, however, considering that the Palestinian Authority is more discredited than ever and the entire political architecture is in shambles.
“MBZ read the Palestinian map well, and saw that Qatar has become a key player because it invested in Hamas, which became the only political party in Gaza after the 2006 elections,” said Abidi. “The UAE wants to reproduce the same scenario. They want to have influence and they know that this requires local representative,” added Abidi.
While Abu Dhabi has been virtually absent from the political arena since the start of the war, Qatar has become the key mediator on the hostage issue through its links to Hamas. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which has recently taken to cultivating ties with Iran, has organized an Arab-Islamic summit on the issue of the war. Egypt is keeping a firm grip on the Rafah crossing in and out of the Gaza Strip and Jordan is involved via its proximity to Ramallah.
“The UAE is now struggling to find its place in the Arab diplomatic landscape, quite simply because it was too quick to normalize relations with Israel,” said Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs (IFI) at the American University of Beirut.
This is one of the factors that could be a serious obstacle for him. Dahlan is described as one of the shadow architects of the Abraham Accords on the UAE’s side. During demonstrations in 2020, after the signing of the agreements, portraits of Dahlan were trampled in Ramallah. Protestors declared him a traitor.
During a time when the carpet shelling of Gaza killed more than 11,000 people, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry, Dahlan appears to be a difficult profile for other Arab countries — which the UAE depends on to support his candidacy — to approve of.
Other players in the conflict have other reasons for not supporting Abu Dhabi’s favorite. “Dahlan is a security mastermind who, today, only exists politically because the Emirates created him,” said Bahout.
He is a candidate that can only be manipulated and maneuvered by his sponsor, the UAE. “He is one of those types of uncontrollable profiles because they don’t obey,” added Bahout. “He is someone who will create more problems than he will solve.”
That’s enough to dishearten the US. “The Americans know that there is a need for someone with at least a minimum of legitimacy, validated by Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But the Egyptians won’t validate Dahlan without Riyadh’s consent, and the Saudis obviously won’t offer the UAE this gift,” Bahout continued.
The rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi persists. MBZ did not attend the Arab-Islamic summit, initiated by Mohammad Bin Salman, on Saturday in Riyadh. It's not the first time MBZ has dodged a diplomatic initiative hosted by MBS.
A cabinet of technocrats
Rejecting rumors that he would be Israel’s choice to lead Gaza after the war, Dahlan promoted his political project for Palestine in an interview with The Economist at the end of October. He spoke of a two-year transition period with an administration led by technocratic figures from Gaza and the West Bank that included all Palestinian factions, including Hamas.
According to Dahlan’s plan, this Palestinian future state, which Israel would have to recognize, would be embodied in a parliamentary system and therefore be governed by a prime minister, thus doing away with the presidency currently held by Mahmoud Abbas.
But the shape of the process remains uncertain and Dahlan’s plan faces many obstacles. The chances that Israel agrees to the creation of a Palestinian state, even with Hamas components, are now virtually nil. The re-composition of Palestinian politics will also depend on the outcome of the war and the PA’s ability to reform itself.
“Mahmoud Abbas must agree to step down, but how? And who will replace him?” asked Bahout. “All this will not happen before at least one or two years.”
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.