Israeli soldiers, on their Merkava, at a location not far from the Lebanese border, Oct. 21, 2023. (Credit: Jalaa Marey/AFP)
Lebanese across the country held their breath this weekend. And they were right: the Israeli bombing of south Lebanon was this weekend at its heaviest yet since the start of Hamas’ offensive against Israel on Oct. 7. While hostilities were previously limited to the front line in the south, they have now extended deeper into Lebanese territory, hitting locations two to five kilometers from the Blue Line boundary demarcation between the states.
From late Saturday afternoon until the early hours of dawn and throughout Sunday, the Israeli shelling did not stop, and most of the border villages were targeted by intense strikes, causing significant material damage and leading to a large-scale displacement of the population to safer areas. More than 1,500 Lebanese and Syrian families fled to the city of Sour, in several reception centers. For its part, Israel is planning to evacuate 14 more settlements near the northern border with Lebanon.
Heavy Israeli bombing hit the outskirts of Ramia, Aita al-Shaab and the Shebaa farms. The outskirts of Dhayra, Alma al-Shaab, Maroun al-Rass and Kfar Shuba were also targeted, following the targeting of the Rweisat al-Alam area in Israel. The Lebanese state-run National News Agency even reported that an Israeli drone fired a missile at Jezzine, more than 15 kilometers away from the border. The Israeli army claimed it struck an anti-tank unit, targeted fighters attempting to fire missiles at the Lebanese border, and that it struck a site in Lebanon from which a missile had been fired at an Israeli aircraft. Hezbollah, via its al-Manar channel, announced on Sunday morning that it had hit “the Israeli enemy” with guided missiles. Hezbollah also fired rockets at Tallet al-Semmaqa, targeting a military post opposite the border town of Blida. At the same time, Israeli aircraft flew at low altitude over coastal areas from the south to the north, passing over Beirut and causing panic throughout the country.
As fighting continued, the death toll within Hezbollah’s ranks increased. Officially, it has reported 29 fighters killed, half of them this weekend alone. The Islamic Jihad in Lebanon also announced that one of its fighters was killed this weekend in the south. For its part, Israel reported that three soldiers were wounded in an anti-tank missile, with one of them suffering serious injuries. This escalation was accompanied by the Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant conducting an inspection tour at the border on Saturday. “Hezbollah has decided to participate in the fighting,” he told his soldiers.
These developments are perceived as a dangerous indicator of military escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. Is the fighting still within the rules of engagement? Is the situation still under control, or does this weekend herald the start of a war similar to the one Lebanon experienced in July 2006 for 33 days? That war resulted in 1,200 deaths on the Lebanese side, mostly civilians, and 160 on the Israeli side, mostly soldiers.
Asked these questions, Kassem Kassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, replied that “there has been an escalation since this weekend, as evidenced by the death toll and the widened range of Israeli targets in Lebanon. This dynamic is linked to developments in Gaza. Hezbollah is responding by widening its field of action and stepping up its attacks.”
Could Hezbollah go even further in its escalation and target major Israeli cities? “Everything is possible, depending on developments on the ground,” Kassir said.
The situation is still ‘under control’
“The current escalation is a reaction to the situation in Gaza, and to Hezbollah’s painful strikes against Israel,” said Mohammad Atwi, a retired general and military expert close to Hezbollah. “I’m talking specifically about the destruction of espionage and intelligence equipment installed on the border, which enabled Israel to spy on official communication lines (fixed and cellular) in Lebanon. The attacks limited Israel’s visibility of developments in southern Lebanon.”
He added, “Hezbollah is also destroying Israeli defense lines and has practically free rein to carry out ground infiltration or liberation operations in the northern localities of occupied Palestine.”
According to Atwi, in response to these developments, Israel is stepping up its attacks and widening the range of targets it is aiming at, provoking a response from Hezbollah.
“For the moment, however, the escalation is still under control in the sense that we are not yet at the stage where more sensitive sites such as infrastructure or major cities in Lebanon are targeted,” he said. “As far as Hezbollah is concerned, it will not take the decision to take this step alone, as the confrontation is now a regional one. This development will therefore only happen through a joint decision by the operations room that brings together all the players in the axis of resistance.”
Michael Young, a researcher at Beirut’s Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, shares a similar view. “We are climbing the steps up the ladder of escalation. However, we are still within the limits of what is ‘acceptable’ for both sides, in the sense that ports, airports, electricity plants, infrastructure and major cities have not yet been targeted yet,” he said.
“The Israelis know very well that the Americans don’t want a regional war and they know full well that a war in Lebanon could cause the whole region to spin out of control,” Young continued. “Containing Tel Aviv’s reaction was one of the reasons why US President Joe Biden went to Israel. Moreover, according to the US press, there are constraints on Israel, which does not seem to be able to carry out a pre-emptive attack against Hezbollah. The idea of a limited operation in Gaza could therefore be put on the table, even if we are not there yet. There are undoubtedly also exchanges between Hamas and Teheran, which does not want a regional escalation either.”
Everyone is waiting for a single clue: a speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said that the party's secretary-general is “following hour by hour the course of the confrontation in [southern Lebanon] and supervising the management of the battle directly with field commanders.”
At a press conference in Bint Jbeil, Fadlallah added that the fact that Nasrallah has not yet delivered a speech on the war between Israel and Hamas is “part of the management of the battle” and increases Israel’s confusion.