Images of the American and Israeli flags projected on a wall of the Jaffa Gate in the Old City of Jerusalem, on October 18, 2023. (Credit: Aris Messinis/AFP)
On Tuesday evening, al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City was hit by a rocket that left at least 471 people dead, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, countries that normalized relations with Israel in 2020, denounced Hamas’ surprise offensive on October 7. While these statements aligned with the American reading of the conflict, other Arab countries remained more cautious, calling for a cessation of violence and condemning Israeli policies towards Palestinians.
After the al-Ahli massacre and the outrage that followed in the Arab-Muslim world, the UAE took a more solid stance, denouncing the incident and calling for a ceasefire.
During his visit to Tel Aviv on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden, took up the Israeli version: “It seems that it is the doing of the other party [Hamas], not you [Israel],” he said, standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
No imminent ceasefire
“The last-minute cancellation of a proposed summit between US President Biden and the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority suggests that the gap in positions between the Arab states and the US may be insurmountable at this stage,” said Hasan Alhasan, researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Mahmoud Abbas quickly withdrew his participation after the strike on the al-Ahli hospital, while the Jordanian Minister of Foreign Affairs justified the meeting's postponement on the grounds that it was impossible to talk about anything besides “stopping the war.”
While Joe Biden is committed to maintaining dialogue, the unconditional support he displays for Israel, which has been preparing a ground offensive on Gaza, will likely upset the US’ Arab partners. Especially since he made no mention in Tel Aviv of a potential cessation of hostilities. “At present, Israel's Western allies have not pushed it to negotiate a ceasefire,” recalled Hasan Alhasan. On October 16, the United States, Great Britain, France and Japan submitted to the UN a resolution calling for a cessation of hostilities. On Wednesday, Washington vetoed another UN resolution requesting that humanitarian aid move into the Gaza Strip.
A dangerous ground offensive
Until now, the US administration hasn’t been able to convince Israel to make concessions in this area. Meanwhile, two million Palestinians are under total blockade in Gaza and the Rafah border crossing with Egypt is still inaccessible, though it might open these coming days. After Biden's visit, the Israeli war cabinet affirmed it would not prevent humanitarian aid from entering Egypt, as long as it consists only of food, water and medicine for the civilian population in southern Gaza. Israel also warned that it would prevent any deliveries to Hamas, without specifying the criteria with which this would be verified. This meager concession might not be enough for Arab countries fearing a mass exodus of Gaza’s population.
“They want to take care of the Hamas, root out the Hamas from Gaza and it’s an open question to what extent they can do that,” said Saeid Golkar, professor at the University of Tennessee and researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Israel’s announced land offensive on Gaza was in fact postponed several times. Such a military operation is in itself difficult for Israel in an area like the Gaza Strip. It could also estrange Israel from its Arab partners, who attribute the strike against the al-Ahli hospital to Israel and are dealing with the anger of their populations in the face of the situation. The countries that have normalized relations with Israel have been embarrassed since the start of the conflict, unable to support Israeli actions, while seeking not to endanger their strategic partnership.
Benjamin Netanyahu's first contact with an Arab leader since the start of the conflict was only established on Monday, the day before the al-Ahli attack. It was a telephone conversation with Emirati President Mohammad bin Zayed. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 between the two countries, aimed in particular to strengthen an anti-Iranian front in the Middle East. This approach has become more essential and risky today as Iran and its proxies threaten to set the region ablaze if the situation in Gaza continues to worsen, or in the event of a ground offensive by the Israeli army.
Tehran in a position of strength
“Fighting on several fronts is not easy for Israel, which does not want to open a front in the North, in my opinion, nor fight against the pro-Iranian militias in the region,” said Golkar.
By pushing the narrative that a Palestinian rocket was behind the al-Ahli tragedy Tuesday evening, Israel tried to reduce the risk of regional conflagration and absolve itself of responsibility for the massacre. On Wednesday, Hezbollah called for a "day of anger." Meanwhile in northern Iraq, two drone attacks on a US base were intercepted on Wednesday.
Faced with the risk of regional escalation and disagreement with Washington, certain Arab countries could seek to take advantage of their normalization with Iran to avoid generalized conflict, or at least to avoid being targeted. Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Faisal bin Farhane met on Wednesday with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on the sidelines of the summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Jeddah. Farhane reaffirmed the Kingdom's "firm position towards the Palestinian cause.”
Faced with the conflict, Riyadh had already announced that it was suspending normalization talks with Israel, which were nevertheless supposed to obtain the signing of a security pact with the United States. Having posed itself as the last defender of the Palestinian cause, Tehran therefore finds itself in a position of strength in the Arab world, where outrage is at a high. It could take advantage of this climate, likely through its proxies in the region, to begin talks with regional de-escalation in view.
In Russia, President Vladimir Putin has voiced support for Arab countries, which have increased their calls for a ceasefire since the strike against the hospital. “I really hope that this will be a signal that we must end this conflict as quickly as possible,” Putin said on Wednesday in China.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour.