Is Lebanon the victim of a ‘plot,' or its own poor governance?

Western nations believe that conditions for the return of Syrians “have not been met,” urging Beirut to develop a “comprehensive strategy.”

Twelve years since the onset of the Civil War, Syrian refugees remain hesitant to return home. To international organizations, this reluctance is attributed to repression under Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, deadly Russian airstrikes and property confiscations by pro-Iranian militias.

Lebanon, which hosts over two million Syrians, including refugees and economic migrants, blames Western policy for contributing to its crisis.

“We are studying alternatives to the West’s refusal to return refugees to their homeland,” said caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in an interview with al-Joumhouriya on Monday.

While Bou Habib is not the only Lebanese politician to use this rhetoric, Lebanon has not yet prepared a realtistic plan for the repatriation of its Syrian refugees.

‘American project’

Several political and religious leaders, particularly Christians, appear to share the same position as Bou Habib.

Members of Lebanon’s Christian community are concerned that the potential naturalization of Syrians, though currently unlikely, could shift the demographic balance. The majority of Syrian refugees in Lebanon are Sunni Muslims and their naturalization could render Christians a minority. Historically, maintaining a balanced representation between Lebanon’s Muslims and Christians has been a fundamental aspect of the country’s confessional political structure.

This holds parallels with the way the country’s Palestinian refugees are viewed. Palestinians residing in Lebanon have been living in a state of limbo since the Nakba of 1948 and hopes of return seem improbable. Some Christian leaders argue that Lebanon is the target of a conspiracy that is designed to disrupt its confessional balance.

“Plotters won’t give up and are trying to disintegrate Lebanon via migrants and the economic blockade,” said Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil.

Youmna Gemayel, a member of the Kataeb party and daughter of assassinated president Bachir Gemayel, echoes this position.

“The settlement of Syrians in Lebanon is openly an American project,” Gemmayel once posted on X (formerly Twitter).

Gemayel’s statement was a response to remarks made by US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller, who said the conditions for Syrians to return to their country “have not been met.”

During a press conference, Miller said the US does not oppose individual voluntary returns, but rather any imposed repatriation that is not done with respect for human dignity and in coordination with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

“The ideal situation for all stakeholders would be for refugees to be able to return home,” a spokesperson at the European Union (EU) delegation in Beirut told L’Orient-Le Jour. “The current environment in Syria is not conducive to safe, voluntary and dignified return.”

“It is up to the Syrian regime to regain the trust of these refugees and ensure the conditions that will allow their return, and donors could then review their aid mechanisms,” the spokesperson added.

On the Lebanese side, the war in Syria seems to beover andthus, there is nothing preventing the return of refugees .

But reports from international organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch point to cases of disappearances, forced military conscription and torture, among Syrians who returned home. These organizations argue that the amnesties decreed by Damascus are just for show.

Assad has even been accused of opposing the return of his own citizens, as the current status quo better suits him.

“The Europeans link any return to a political solution in Syria,” said Ziad al-Sayegh, a public policy researcher. “That doesn’t mean they want them to stay in Lebanon forever.”

‘Gateway to the Mediterranean and Europe’

As Western capitals await concessions from the Assad regime before allowing exiles to return, how will crisis-riddled Lebanon cope?

Last week, Cypriot Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou called on the EU to support Lebanon in dealing with the migration crisis.

“We are committed to supporting Lebanon and its infrastructure to enable it to continue to shelter refugees,” said a Western diplomatic source on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

During a meeting in Brussels earlier this year, the international community allocated over $9 billion in aid to Syrians in the region.

In Lebanon, although the funds are paid directly to beneficiaries, they represent a significant injection of foreign currency into the country.

By pumping financial aid, the international community hopes that Lebanon will continue hosting Syrian refugees until a solution materializes.

In July, the European Parliament called on the Lebanese government“to refrain from expulsions, discriminatory measures and incitement to hatred against Syrian refugees.”

Some have described this position as “hypocritical”, citing that many EU member states adopt openly xenophobic policies.

Denmark, for example, is stepping up restrictions on immigration. Ioannou is calling on Brussels to review its list of “safe areas” in Syria to enable the repatriation of Europes refugees .

According to HRW, this is a “dangerous and unrealistic” proposa.

In a speech on Monday, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah suggested that Lebanon open its maritime border to refugees, so they could embark for Europe.

“They [the EU] will come and negotiate with us,” said Nasrallah, who views Western sanctions against Syria as the main obstacle to repatriation.

“Lebanon is a gateway to the Mediterranean and therefore to Europe,” said the previously mentioned Western diplomat. “The collapse of Lebanon is therefore all the more problematic as it could lead to a new wave of migration.”

Europe stresses that many of its own countries, especially Germany, have taken in millions of refugees since the start of the war in Syria.

“Lebanon and the countries of the region in general, are home to the largest number of Syrians, that’s for sure,” said a UN diplomat on condition of anonymity. “However, there is a fundamental difference in the way these countries manage the issue: Unlike Europe, there is no question [for these countries] of granting asylum to refugees,” the diplomat continued.

“This means that host countries are under no obligation to offer them a path to integration or even citizenship, as Europe does,” the diplomat said. “They therefore remain ‘guests’ indefinitely, unless they are granted asylum in a third country with the help of the UNHCR or return home.”

Towards a national strategy?

For years, successive Lebanese governments have tried to speed up the process of repatriating refugees but without success.

The Lebanese Army must now deal with a new wave of migrants against a backdrop of escalation in Syria, with no political cover whatsoever.

“Lebanon has never really been able to manage this issue,” Sayegh said. “Internally, it has been unable to take a census or organize the presence of refugees; internationally, its foreign policy is not proactive.”

“Rather than making accusations of conspiracy, [Lebanon] should be working to include the refugee issue in the Geneva peace process or negotiating the withdrawal of the Iranian militias occupying certain Syrian areas, which are preventing the repatriation of many Syrians,” he added.

If Lebanon takes action, will Europe be open to it?

“Supposing that Lebanon can negotiate with the government in Damascus — which seems unlikely — or with other stakeholders, a logical plan that ensures the protection of human rights, allowing it to address the migration crisis, the international community will respect this sovereign decision,” said another European diplomat on condition of anonymity. “However, the Lebanese are unable to reach a consensus on a repatriation strategy among themselves.”

In September, the caretaker government instructed Bou Habib to travel to Damascus to negotiate a return policy, but crises at home hindered the initiative.

A dispute broke out between Bou Habib and caretaker Minister for Displaced Persons Issam Charafeddine, who argued that the issue of Syrian refugees falls within his prerogative, despite the fact that his ministry is officially responsible for the internally displaced of r the 1975-90 Civil War.

“Let [Bou Habib] withdraw completely from this issue,” Charafeddine said last week. The Foreign Minister’s visit to Syria is still pending.

Bou Habib said he raised the issue with his Syrian counterpart, Faisal Mekdad, at the UN General Assembly in New York recently.

“There is a specialized team at the Foreign Ministry that is developing proposals,” Bou Habib said. “We will discuss them during the visit to Damascus after my return [Monday from the USA] and listen to alternative Syrian proposals.”

Will he be able to convince Assad to allow Syrian refugees to return? The answer is unclear.

This article was originally published in French.