The logo of Turkey’s Central Bank at the entrance of the bank’s headquarters in Ankara. (Credit: AFP)
ANKARA — Turkey is expected to record a current account deficit of $4.1 billion in November, a Reuters poll showed on Friday — while the deficit stood at $48 billion in 2022 — after soaring energy prices derailed Ankara's plans to shore up the shortfall.
Turkey's trade deficit, a major component of the current account, widened by 61.6 percent in November to $8.8 billion, mainly due to the sharp rise in gold imports and surging cost of energy imports.
In a Reuters poll, the median estimate of 11 economists for the current account deficit (TRCURA=ECI) in November was $4.1 billion, with forecasts ranging from $1.4 billion to $4.75 billion.
The median forecast for the deficit in 2022 stood at $48 billion, down slightly from a previous poll, with estimates ranging between $43 billion and $49 billion.
The year-end forecasts were revised throughout the year due to a potential further decline in exports and the expectation that energy prices will remain elevated. However, the year-end median of the poll declined in the last couple of months.
Ankara sees the deficit at $47.3 billion this year, according to official forecasts announced in September, which would be the highest since 2013 when the deficit was more than $55 billion.
In 2021, the deficit was $7.26 billion.
Under President Tayyip Erdogan's new plan, authorities are working to turn Turkey's chronic current account deficits into a surplus, which the central bank says will help establish price stability.
Global energy prices have made that goal all but unattainable in 2022, though authorities say a surplus will be achieved when energy prices normalize. In the three-year economic forecasts, the government sees the deficit narrowing only to $10 billion in 2025.
Turkey's central bank has cut its policy rate by 500 basis points last year to 9 percent while inflation reached its decades' peak. Inflation eased to 64.27 percent on base effect in December.
Turkey's central bank is scheduled to announce the November current account data at on Jan. 11.