Gebran Bassil greeting a supporter of the Free Patriotic Movement during the demonstration organized by the party on the day of President Michel Aoun's departure from Baabda Palace, Oct. 30, 2022. (Credit: Anwar Amro/AFP)
After threatening to break with the blank vote strategy imposed by Hezbollah — pending a broader agreement on the next president — the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) announced Tuesday that they have come back into the fold.
Party leader, Gebran Bassil appears to have no interest in distancing himself from Hezbollah, at least at this stage.
Following a long-awaited meeting of the Strong Lebanon bloc, the FPM issued a statement Tuesday evening:
“A blank vote aims to pave the way for a consensus [candidate],” the statement read, calling on the other parliamentary blocs to “meet us halfway and propose candidates who meet the criteria set by the party.”
The announcement came at the end of a long week marked by a verbal escalation by the Aounist MPs who declared that they would put a name in the ballot box in the next parliamentary session.
Parliament is scheduled to convene Thursday morning for a presidential electoral session. The same scenario as the previous failed sessions is likely to play out, in which MP Michel Moawad will receive the votes from a large portion of the political opposition, and will face off with a “blank vote.”
“We opted for this choice because all the protagonists should agree on the future head of state,” a FPM MP, who requested anonymity, explained to L’Orient-Le Jour. The MP stressed that the decision was the result of a long debate marked by differences of opinion among the party MPs themselves.
“The largest Christian parliamentary group cannot continue to vote blank on a matter that concerns Christians first,” another FMP parliamentarian told L’Orient-Le Jour, also on condition of anonymity.
Other MPs of the party argued that it would be better for the FPM to continue to vote blank rather than to support a candidate who has no chance of taking office.
“We don’t want to ‘waste’ names. Just as we don’t want to put ourselves at odds with Hezbollah,” an FPM official, who did not wish to be named, told L’Orient-Le Jour.
Hezbollah is caught between a rock and a hard place
While Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh remains Hezbollah’s undeclared favorite presidential candidate, he cannot make it to the Baabda Presidential Palace without Bassil’s endorsement.
Bassil is a precious ally of Hezbollah, which needs the Christian political cover provided by the FPM.
“We are not really worried about the choices that Gebran Bassil could opt for. He has the right to be in favor of a [presidential] candidate,” Hezbollah spokesman, Mohammad Afif Nabulsi, told L’Orient-Le Jour. “It is clear that our approach is different from Mr. Bassil’s, and we respect that.”
During his last meeting with Bassil, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah tried to convince him to endorse Frangieh for the president, according to a former cabinet minister. The FPM leader, however, was adamant in his refusal.
Faced with this impasse, could Hezbollah go so far as to pursue the opposite, asking Frangieh to support Bassil for president instead?
“The issue has not been raised,” Tony Frangieh, MP for Zgharta and son Sleiman Frangieh, told L’Orient-Le Jour.
Like its Aounist rival, the Marada Movement is opposed to any amendment of the constitution to enable the election of army chief Joseph Aoun, who is seen as a likely consensus candidate.
Joumblatt opens a door
Despite calls from Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for agreement on the name of a president, no consensus has yet been reached.
After abandoning the idea of sponsoring a broad-based national dialogue, due to the veto of both the FPM and the Lebanese Forces, Berri met Sunday with his long-time ally, Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Joumblatt.
At the end of the meeting, Joumblatt reiterated his position: yes to “our candidate Michel Moawad,” and no to any “confrontational candidate.”
With Joumblatt’s endorsement, Moawad has the support of the opposition MPs, the Lebanese Forces (LF), Kataeb, and several independent MPs.
“By ‘confrontational candidate,’ Walid Joumblatt clearly means Sleiman Frangieh,” an LF official told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.
The PSP leader previously expressed this position at the end of last week’s conference marking the 33rd anniversary of the Taif Agreement that ended the 1975-90 Civil War.
But since his meeting with Berri, Joumblatt seems to have left the door open to an agreement.
In the meantime, “We will continue to vote for Michel Moawad, and that’s what we will do on Thursday,” said Marwan Hamadeh, a PSP MP for Chouf, told L’Orient-Le Jour. “This is not a political maneuver.”
For its part, the LF will vote for Moawad again, according to party spokesperson Charles Jabbour.
This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.