Lebanese voters dancing in front of the Consulate General in Dubai yesterday, waiting for their turn to vote in the Lebanese legislative elections. (Credit: Karim Sahib/AFP)
There has been a surprise in the United Arab Emirates, where the voters’ turnout exceeded 70 percent in Abu Dhabi.
The UAE saw large crowds of voters, with nearly 25,000 registered voters expected to vote in one location per city in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Other countries had hours-long wait times.
Yesterday, the second voting day for some of the 244,442 registered total diaspora voters was held in Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, Asia and the UAE. Diaspora voters across 48 countries voted on May 8, while citizens in ten other countries in the Middle East and North Africa voted on Friday.
But the overall dynamic seems rather positive compared to the previous elections. However, these numbers are mostly estimates given by Foreign Ministry authorities on the evening of the elections before polls closed. There are no final definitive figures on the turnout at the time this article was written.
In 2018, 56 percent of Lebanese who registered to vote abroad actually cast their ballots. This year’s turnout was estimated at nearly 60 percent percent in several European and African countries, while the number of registered voters tripled.
From Friday to Sunday, more than 135,000 Lebanese voted, more than two times the rate in 2018. based on a 9 p.m. statement on May 8 made by authorities with the Foreign Ministry. However these numbers are not final and estimates tended to vary across officials and volunteers.
In the UAE, In Dubai, the final turnout was 71.2 percent, according to the LBCI TV channel. However, turnout stands at 77 percent in Abu Dhabi, according to the state-run National News Agency.
In France, where long lines were reported, the number of registered voters is one of the highest (28,136), by 6 PM voting day, there were around 53 percent voter turnout, and 71 percent (19,965 voters) by closing time, according to Lebanon’s ambassador to France, Rami Adwan. This is compared with 60 percent of the 8,370 registered voters in 2018. While Germany received nearly a 49 percent turnout rate.
In Africa, the turnout reached 48 percent in the evening, with the highest number of registered voters in Nigeria (2,580), and Côte d’Ivoire (6,070).
This much-awaited second test of the Lebanese mood at a crucial transitional period comes after a first vote was held on Friday in the Middle Eastern countries, where Friday is a day off, and where nearly 58.9 percent of the registered voters went to the polls, or 18,214 people out of the 30,930 registered voters.
The UAE comes first
The following would sum up yesterday’s test: A rise in voter engagement from citizens and protest groups against the traditional parties, many of which are firmly-established abroad.
The vote in the UAE is not predominantly Sunni (nearly 27 percent of the registered voters), but rather Christian, which consists of more than 51 percent, with a significant number of Druze.
Unlike what happened on Friday, mainly in Saudi Arabia — where many voters who are Sunni abstained from voting in accordance with the Future Movement’s watchword — the Sunni voters [in the UAE] did not abstain, due to the high turnout rate.
This turnout could shift the balance in favor of change. “Although mostly Christians, voters in Dubai and Abu Dhabi voted overwhelmingly in the Beirut II constituency,” said Georgia Dagher, an election expert and researcher with Lebanese think tank The Policy Initiative.
Mobilization for Beirut II and Tripoli
Following closely the statements reported by authorities, media outlets in Lebanon, and on social media, with posts of voters’ purple thumbs who had just voted, the will for change was significant yesterday among the majority of voters who openly spoke of their voting intention and hoped to have new figures elected.
This was particularly the case in several European countries, such as France, Britain and Belgium, as well as in the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar, where voters openly said they are fed up with the status quo and political establishment, which is responsible for putting the country in one of the worst crises in its history.
“The [voters’] mobilization was quite considerable even for the Beirut II and Tripoli constituencies. However, one should not fall into the trap of believing that a majority of votes will necessarily go to the forces of change. They will certainly be able to obtain a relatively considerable bonus of nearly 15 to 25 percent [of the votes]. But in light of an extreme polarization, the traditional parties are not going to take a hit, especially since they have very effective machines,” said Karim Bitar, a political analyst.
Logistical problems in Australia
There was perhaps an exception to this mobilization in Australia — a continent where the votes predominantly go to the Lebanese Forces — where there was around a 55 percent turnout at closing time.
In Australia, the poor distribution of voters abroad may explain this relatively low turnout. A few days ago, Lebanese living in Australia complained that different members of some families were assigned to vote in polling stations that are sometimes several hours drive away, which would make access to these polling stations difficult or even impossible for them.
“The problem in Australia is more about identification papers, as many Lebanese in that country do not have valid IDs or passports. This is a problem that already existed in 2018,” said an expert who declined to be named.
Shiites vote for change
Elsewhere, including Germany, Romania and several African countries including Côte d’Ivoire, where a predominantly Shiite vote is deciding, it has traditionally been known to have most votes going to the Amal Movement and Hezbollah.
“However, the new thing this year in Romania is that there is a majority of Shiite voters who voted for the first time and indicated, discreetly out of fear of pressure, that they want change,” said a delegate of the protest movement on site.
The turnout in Germany, which is considered a Shiite stronghold par excellence that votes mainly for the Amal movement, was around 49 percent several hours before polls closed.
In the Americas — in Latin America and the US — where the voting did not start until late afternoon, the final turnout will be revealed this morning. However, judging by the large number of voters in the early voting hours, the turnout should not be disappointing.