Oxfam study: Expect low turnout in May, but high support for independents

BEIRUT — Only 54 percent of respondents to a study published by Oxfam in Beirut, Chouf, Aley, Sour and Zahrani said they are willing to vote in the 2022 elections. More than 50 percent of these people believe that there are no promising candidates running, while more than 40 percent said they will not vote due to the economic situation.

Here’s what we know:

    • The study from Oxfam, an international NGO that works to challenge inequality and overcome poverty, is titled “Analyzing voter turnout and behavior in Lebanon,” and explores the voting behavior of citizens across the constituencies of Beirut I and II, Chouf and Aley, and Sour and Zahrani “to further understand the reasons for voter inclination, and, consequently, to reveal the factors necessary for creating political change in a complex and deteriorating context.”

    • The research showed that a significant number of people will vote for opposition candidates. “More than 48 percent of those who will vote stated that they are, in fact, looking to vote for independents,” for the following reasons: their preferred candidates will be able to solve the economic crisis, or will improve living conditions, and independent candidates are not corrupt. In addition, respondents said that opposition candidates reflect the people’s demands.

    • “Half of those who will vote for traditional parties will do so for historic reasons and out of habit, showing that political literacy still needs cultivating in the country,” the paper added.

    • The researchers wrote that efforts to include women in the electoral process are “almost entirely absent,” recommending that “campaigns must focus on the development of a comprehensive plan to ensure women’s participation in political life. They should include providing adequate spaces for advocacy, evidence-generating activities that focus on women’s demands, and capacity-building on gender and women’s rights.”