Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri and mufti Abdel Latif Derian embrace at Dar al-Fatwa. (Credit: Dalati and Nohra)
To resign or not to resign. This is the question for Saad Hariri. The premier-designate has kept the country in suspense for weeks now. Indeed, it appears the answer to this dilemma remains unknown even to him.
The ambiguity surrounding Hariri’s decision could in part be explained by the fact that stepping down at such a critical stage could cost the Future Movement leader dearly.
In fact, Hariri could have more to lose than to gain if he decides to resign. Stepping down means that he would leave the field open for President Michel Aoun and the Aounist camp.
Hariri’s return to Beirut from abroad on Monday rekindled speculation about his short-term calculations.
The premier-designate could indeed give it one last shot by handing Aoun a new cabinet lineup, which the president may once again reject.
This was one of the scenarios Hariri reportedly discussed with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri during their tête-à-tête on Monday.
But before taking any step, the premier-designate intends to consult with his local and regional partners, including Egypt and Qatar, as well as former Lebanese prime ministers, in order to gauge their opinion on the matter.
Among the Haririan camp, the official discourse remains as monotonous as it is puzzling: Hariri’s resignation is out of the question at the moment, but the option is still on the table.
The question is therefore to figure out when, or rather under what circumstances, Hariri would decide to throw in the towel. Clearly, the Sunni leader will try to get out of this situation with the least possible damage to himself.
Cushioning the losses
Would Hariri’s resignation be seen as a stinging defeat and capitulation to the head of state?
“This depends on how Saad Hariri submits his resignation. How he would make and justify this decision is extremely significant,” a former politician from the presidential camp told L’Orient-Le Jour.
To avoid appearing defeated, it is important for Hariri to convey the following message: stepping down does not suggest withdrawing from political life.
One plausible scenario here would be to postpone this step for as long as possible, meaning he should hold on until as close to the parliamentary elections as possible, so that a government will be put in place solely in time to prepare for the vote.
From some analysts’ standpoint, Hariri is putting a lot at stake if he decides to step down now.
Aoun would claim victory, setting a precedent whereby the Christian president would be able to subdue the Sunni prime minister.
The Sunni community would take an extremely dim view of such a victory. This is not to mention that the premier-designate would lose face among his Arab backers, notably the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, both of which have been encouraging Hariri to dig in his heels since the start of the showdown with Aoun.
Over time, the standoff over cabinet formation has become a matter of local and regional Sunni retaliation.
The importance of timing
For some observers, if Hariri ends up opting for resignation, he will have to choose an opportune time to embarrass the president.
Everything will therefore depend on from which angle this resignation is viewed.
For Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, Hariri could step down with the aim of putting an end to the painful standoff with the president and passing the blame for the cabinet formation failure to the latter, knowing that both he and Aoun share responsibility for the crisis and its consequences.
“Hariri could ultimately use his decision to resign as a way to redeem himself before Saudi Arabia and indirectly prove that he was not behind the political stalemate,” Bahout said.
By recusing himself, the premier-designate would sabotage Aoun’s last year in his six-year term as president by depriving him of a government and passing the buck to him.
“This could be a dream come true for Berri who has sworn to wage war on the head of state even if he has to do it through Saad Hariri,” Bahout added.
Hariri will only agree to step down after having protected his back and decided on the name of the person who will take his place.
Any future candidate for the post must also be approved by former heads of government, Hezbollah — which is well aware of the importance of preserving the fragile balance between Shiites and Sunnis — and Hariri’s old friend Berri.
According to a March 14 analyst, should Hariri decide to throw in the towel, he will have to maintain his image and prestige as a Sunni leader in Lebanon by ensuring that his leaving the stage is orchestrated by the highest Sunni authority, Dar al-Fatwa.
Just as mufti Abdel Latif Derian renewed his support for Hariri back on June 12, he will have to publicly endorse his resignation.
According to the same March 14 source, this would be a way of calming the Sunni popular bases and giving legitimacy to Hariri’s political withdrawal. This would also be one way for the premier-designate to launch his electoral campaign for the 2022 elections.
Meanwhile, Fares Souaid, a former MP, believes that Hariri will agree to step down only if he gets something in return. In other words: if the president resigns too.
“For now, both men are benefiting from this showdown by defending tooth and nail their prerogatives in a bid to restore their image within their respective communities,” Souaid said.
This article was originally published in French in L’Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Sahar Ghoussoub.
